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From mid-June, almost 1,000 older people died more than the long-term average. Corona could play a part in that.
The heat records are falling in rows this summer: never before has the zero degree limit been as high as at the end of July. As early as June, the thermometer showed a record high of 36.9°C. And there were already as many hot days with temperatures of over 30°C in Basel and Geneva as in other hot summers in total.
Martin Röösli is not surprised that more people from the group of over 65-year-olds have died since mid-June. “But what surprises me is the extent of this excess mortality. Within six weeks, almost a thousand more people died than was statistically expected,” says the professor at the Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute in Basel.
What surprises us is the extent of this excess mortality.
Hot summer under the magnifying glass
Röösli evaluated the past hot summers and found that the heat waves from 2015 to 2019 caused less excess mortality at similar temperatures, which was attributed to effective protective measures after the hot summer of 2003.
Such measures by the authorities can include heat warnings to the population, but also recommendations for nursing staff in retirement homes on how to protect particularly vulnerable residents from the consequences of overheating.
Early first heat wave
But now, in the summer of 2022, these measures no longer appear to be having the same effect, as the significantly higher excess mortality suggests. According to Röösli, one reason could be that the very first heat wave started in mid-June and therefore very early: The effects are greater then because the population has not yet properly gotten used to the heat. This phenomenon is known from other hot summers.
Early first heat waves have a greater impact because the population is not yet used to the heat.
And then there is the corona pandemic. In the months of June and July, a good 160 people died with a confirmed corona infection, which accounted for around 15 percent of all deaths. The circulating omicron variants therefore only contribute to a small extent to the current excess mortality.
Still weak after Corona?
At best, the pandemic has a greater impact, notes environmental epidemiologist Röösli. Especially with Covid, more and more studies have shown that even after a moderate course of the disease, the risk of cardiovascular disease is still increased over a longer period of time: “There may be an interaction here that people who were formerly infected with Corona tolerate the heat less well, and that affects them especially older people.”
Even after a moderate course of Covid, the risk of cardiovascular disease is still increased for a long time.
In addition, over the past two and a half years, several thousand people have had to be hospitalized due to an infection with the corona virus. Those who had to be cared for in the intensive care unit often suffered long-term damage to various organs. You may now be particularly sensitive to heat.
Legend:
Keep the heat outside by all means possible. A residential property on July 20 in Geneva.
Keystone/Martial Trezzini
The Federal Statistical Office will only be able to present the more precise causes behind the current deaths in one to two and a half years. By then it will also be clear whether the upcoming August will claim further heat deaths. Europe-wide monitoring shows that excess mortality in many countries with intense heat waves is increasing, sometimes sharply.