Chancellor Scholz is on his first trip abroad to Paris. There he meets a president who may still mourn Merkel. Still, the French government is very happy about his choice. What Scholz has to look out for, says the France expert Ronja Kempin from the Science and Politics Foundation in an interview with ntv.de.
ntv.de: Has French President Emmanuel Macron already overcome the end of the Merkel era?
Ronja Kempin: Indeed, Macron is likely to follow Merkel’s departure with a crying eye. Even if it took a long time for him and the Chancellor to get together. For a long time the two didn’t go together at all. The experienced Chancellor, who cultivated a cautious political style and tended to wait and see, met a French President who was young and dynamic and wanted to turn the world off its hinges. That didn’t work for a long time. Until the corona crisis. Then both sides pulled together and put the reconstruction fund for the EU on the rails. That broke the ice.
How important is the personal level anyway?
Interestingly, it is still very central in the Franco-German relationship. On the one hand, we have relations with France that are closer than with any other country in the world. On the other hand, however, we differ in terms of content in so many policy areas. And therefore, regardless of this close relationship, it is always crucial that the two leaders find each other. Only when the two of them have a good working relationship and trust each other is there room for compromise. Then the Franco-German engine will also be able to forge consensus in the EU.
How well do they already know each other?
Ronja Kempin is a Senior Fellow at the Science and Politics Foundation. In this role, she advised the Federal Foreign Office in 2014. She teaches at the Free University of Berlin.
They have known each other for a long time. Scholz is not a newcomer on the political stage. I think Paris is very pleased with this new German Chancellor. From France’s point of view, a good choice has been made.
Because there are many voices in the SPD that Macron’s initiatives and demands should be dealt with more intensely?
If you run the government, it is surely something else. But there are some passages in the coalition agreement that France really likes. For example, for differentiated integration. In other words, the possibility of advancing the integration process with a group of states. This is a demand that President Macron made in his Sorbonne speech in 2017. He was always at odds with Angela Merkel on this issue.
How are the new German climate protection plans viewed? France has a completely different attitude towards nuclear power.
France insists and will get it through that nuclear energy is recognized as green energy in the EU and that funding will flow from Brussels with it. The French government’s insistence on this can also be explained by rising energy prices. Macron is simply afraid that he will face domestic political protests again. The protests of the yellow vests were sparked by the high fuel prices. This is why nuclear energy is also an important political instrument to relieve the budget financially.
Merkel was criticized by some for “only” being a crisis manager and having done little. Isn’t it a full-time job to keep the EU together as it is? Keyword Brexit, Keyword Hungary, Keyword Poland?
On the one hand, I agree with you. We in the EU have not been able to get out of the crisis mode since 2008 at the latest with the debt crisis. At the same time we see that this endeavor to keep the EU cohesive has not been able to contain the famous centrifugal forces. Only managing the status quo shows the EU no way into the future. This also means that the new German government has to put itself in closer touch with France on the issues on which we can move forward together.
Is it more about digitization and climate protection or about the constitution of the EU?
The constitution of the EU is perhaps the biggest issue. It is also a question of whether we are ready to change the European treaties again. For example, whether we are prepared to abandon the principle of unanimity in the field of foreign and security policy and switch to majority decisions and perhaps also enable group formation. So to allow contractually that groups who want to dare to be more integrated are allowed to do so.
Macron also wants Europeans to become more independent from the US. How realistic is a common army?
Not particularly in the next few years. The member states are not willing enough to give up their national sovereignty for this. France wants the EU to be more capable of acting on security and defense policy. It sees the danger that Europe can no longer rely on the US. And that we will become the plaything of the great powers, but also of regional powers such as Russia and Turkey.
President Biden wants to start a security dialogue with Russia. Are Germany and France being left behind?
It has to be said that the EU and its central member states Germany and France are left out.
That can be seen as confirmation of France’s fears.
I think the French have hit a nerve there. You are always a bit more active in terms of security policy. This is also due to their history. You are a permanent member of the UN Security Council, you have nuclear weapons. They have the right in their DNA to help shape world politics. They realize that they can no longer do it alone and that their means, especially financially, are limited to keep up with the USA and China. They know that they will only succeed if the Europeans join forces more closely.
How do you see Macron’s chances for re-election?
That is a difficult question. The presidential elections next year are more open than we would have thought half a year ago. That’s because there are two interesting new candidates. On the one hand, the conservative challenger Valerie Pécresse, who is very popular, and on the extreme right, Eric Zemmour and Marine Le Pen, two contenders who may be taking votes away from each other.
What mistakes should Scholz avoid when he comes to Paris now?
He has to do a balancing act. On the one hand, he has to say: We are at France’s side when it comes to France’s EU Council Presidency. So he has to take a very pro-European stance. At the same time, however, we know that Macron will use the Council presidency to improve his own position in the presidential election campaign. And neutrality is imperative: France did not interfere in our election campaign either. So there is a fine line to walk: agreeing to Macron without facing accusations of supporting him in the French election campaign.
Volker Petersen spoke to Ronja Kempin