The pictures are clear: Dictator Alexander Lukashenko has people detained forcibly on the border between Poland and Belarus, has them beaten, mistreated, starved and frozen and tries to drive them across the border to Poland. He wants to put the EU under pressure, possibly split, because he hits the Union at one of its weakest points: the unresolved asylum policy. In an interview with ntv.de, migration researcher Gerald Knaus explains why Poland is sealing off the EU border with water cannons and how another path could look.
ntv.de: Is what Lukashenko does hybrid warfare?
Migration researcher and author Gerald Knaus is chairman of the European Stability Initiative think tank. His book “What Limits Do We Need?” was published by Piper in 2020.
(Photo: picture alliance / dpa)
Gerald Knaus: Lukashenko announced in the summer that he saw his country at war with the EU. The EU had decided on sanctions, first because Belarus reacted to protests against Lukashenko with repression and violence, then also because its air force hijacked a passenger plane with a critic of the regime on board and forced it to land. The dictator interpreted the sanctions as an attack on his country and announced that he would do everything possible to defeat the enemy.
To this end, he did not bring tanks to the border with the EU, but people.
Yes, and he was helped by those who in recent years have repeatedly spoken in the EU about the fact that migration is an attack on the EU, an invasion and an existential threat. In 2015 it was only Viktor Orbán, the Hungarian head of government, who saw the EU in a struggle for existence over territory and culture. You don’t need border guards there, he kept saying for years, you need soldiers.
Poland has now deployed them at the border. Orbán’s stance prevails?
Monday was a remarkable day – we saw how all 27 EU member states jointly declared that the imperative not to reject refugees, the core of the refugee convention, no longer applies at the external borders. This means that the EU is now doing the policy that Viktor Orbán demanded of the EU in 2015, and which at the time only supported the AfD: closing borders with weapons and soldiers.
What does this mean for the estimated 4,000 people who are stuck there on the Polish border?
For these people there was no specific answer. Your fate is now in the hands of Lukashenko. And that in turn leads to pressure in the EU to negotiate with him directly. His trap snaps shut. It was declared: We will not allow ourselves to be blackmailed. We see this as an attack and support Poland with the aim of not letting anyone through. The methods used have not been criticized. And then you are forced to negotiate with him in the interests of the thousands on the border. Conversations that his media already present as his victory.
Like the phone call with Chancellor Angela Merkel?
Yes. Lukashenko wanted to be taken seriously again as the man in power in Belarus. At least that’s what he succeeded in doing.
In terms of sanctions, however, Lukashenko’s strategy is unsuccessful. The EU is tightening it and is now expanding it to include the state airline Belavia so that it no longer flies refugees to Belarus. A good strategy?
Yes, because it is legitimate to discourage people from going to Belarus or to make it difficult for them. Lukashenko’s regime not only exploits the people – they pay thousands of euros for it – but also abuses them and forcibly detained them for the past few weeks. Anything that prevents people from falling into this trap makes sense. But that is not the decisive factor in the EU’s strategy.
But?
The decisive message is: “Don’t get on the planes anymore, because nobody can get through, because nobody can get to the EU.” The European Union stands behind Poland’s policy of forcibly putting those who reach Polish territory back on the other side of the fence. In a situation in which, due to the actions of the Lukashenko security forces, they are exposed to the acute risk of inhuman treatment. But that is illegal.
The pictures are reminiscent of those from March 2020, when the Turkish government bussed refugees to the EU border in Greece – also to blackmail the EU.
At that time a new phase of the border strategy began on the part of the EU: It suspended the right of asylum and repelled people with violence. That was when pushbacks on land and in the sea became routine. Turkey then stopped bringing people to the border. She has brought them back, and she is now taking back those who were repulsed by Greece at sea. Now the EU hopes that Lukashenko will stop too. But for that she has to negotiate with him.
The EU does not want to be blackmailed – legitimately. The price for this: She aims water cannons at people in need and places her fate in the hands of an unpredictable despot. Is there any other way?
It is clear that majorities in all 27 member states are calling for control. In order to secure that, people are now being pushed back. But if you want to avoid violence, you need humane control.
What could it look like?
There is a way, but it is arduous because you need partners outside the EU. If one were to make offers to democracies in Eastern Europe that support the vital interests of these countries, in return these non-EU countries could accept refugees as safe third countries from a given date. You would be treated with dignity there, you would no longer have to be afraid. The signal would still be: “Do not go to Belarus, because you will not come to the EU!” – That would have been a possibility, but the German government has so far said that it is not interested in it. This is currently theory.
What will the price be for the path the EU has chosen?
We do not know that, yet. It is a defeat for refugee protection and the rule of law. Other countries look to Europe, where the refugee convention comes from, and see Europeans who rely on soldiers in the face of a few thousand people.
Frauke Niemeyer spoke to Gerald Knaus