This is one of the effects of the war in Ukraine: sunflower oil sees its prices soar and disappears from the shelves of supermarkets. Ukraine, which provided 50% of world production, has not been able to export since the Russian invasion: its ports are blocked and, according to kyiv, road and rail allow less half a million tonnes of goods per month, mainly cereals, ten times less than before the conflict.
For its part, Russia, which exports 28% of the world’s sunflower oil, has just introduced a quota for foreign sales of this precious liquid, after increasing taxes at the beginning of April by 20%. on export.
“Oil Raid”
On the shelves of French supermarkets, consumers are flocking to the precious bottles, the price of which is now approaching that of olive oil. On Twitter, dozens of posts evoke the rays robbed and some try to deal with the shortage by lightnessoffering to exchange a “5l bottle of sunflower oil for a Switch Oled”a “ bottle of oil of sunflower against Audi A3 ».
In Toulouse, restaurateurs have built up reserves, taking over Independent Opinion. In Amiens, the wholesaler Metro has decided to ration sales to restaurateurs, reports France Blue. The Republican East also notices a “Razzia on sunflower oil” in border supermarkets. “In Moselwrites the regional newspaper, many Germans come to stock up. Result: the shelves are empty. »
From February 21 to March 27, oils, flour and pasta saw “their numbers of stock-out incidents in supermarkets (excluding Lidl or Aldi discounters) increase more or less significantly”respectively 37% for oils, 26% for flour and 21% for pasta, explained at the beginning of April to Agence France-Presse (AFP) Nicolas Léger, analytical director at NielsenIQ, the panelist benchmark for superstore sales.
Consumers are not the only ones to toast. Food manufacturers, large consumers of sunflower oil – it is used in the composition of many foods such as fries, crisps, sauces, biscuits, baby jars, margarines, ready meals, pesto , breaded fish – must replace it with substitute ingredients, such as rapeseed oil, palm oil. And they are asking for exemptions to sell these revisited products without changing the labels. consumer association food watch warning about the risk that the crisis will serve as an alibi for reformulations on the sly.
Consumer behavior in question
There is however no risk of shortage in the short term, no more on the oil than on other products, assured at the beginning of April Michel-Édouard Leclerc, the president of the strategic committee E.Leclerc, on BFM TVcalling into question the behavior of consumers:
“In France, today, there is no shortage for everyday consumption and there won’t be until the summer. Pasta, there is. For sunflower oil, our stocks go until June. Consumers begin to overstock, they are the ones who cause the non-replenishment of shelves. France is almost self-sufficient, except for animal feed. »
“On sunflower oil, there are a few precautionary purchases, but we are not in complete shortage of supply”also declared the boss of System U, Dominique Schelcher, at the microphone of Radio Classique. “People are stocking up and that’s what may empty the shelves right now, but there will be merchandise again. Not necessarily all brands, but there will be products, don’t panic. »
“We say over and over again not to worry, that there is no shortage, but talking about it attracts the attention of some consumers, who instead of buying a liter of oil go buy three »declared to AFP Thierry Desouches, spokesperson for System U. “However, the supply chain is sized for a certain volume, and if the latter is multiplied, there can be this kind of rupture” while there is no stock problem.
” There will be no supply problems if the French remain in a reasonable purchasing mode “, explains Fabien Razac, the marketing director of Lesieur, to LSArecalling that the Avril group’s oils (Lesieur, Isio 4, Cœur de soleil) are entirely grown, pressed and bottled in France.
Production uncertainties after summer
The shortage could, however, be felt after the summer. At the end of March, Mykola Solsky, Ukrainian Agriculture Minister estimated that the Russian invasion risked halving the next grain harvest. Ukrainians “will sow wherever possible”but only “50% to 75% of the territories” will be able to be exploited, underlined Mykola Solsky, who also specified that many farmers had “joined the army or territorial defence”creating a labor shortage.
Sowing has started well in Ukraine, but if the sunflower volumes are not there, “this will be a problem for sunflower oil and for the food industry”, acknowledges Thierry Desouches (System U). Even if they sow, the goods will have to be taken out of a country that is currently cut off from trade routes. Uncertainty could further increase the temptation to buy precautionary.
Sunflower seeding started on this farm in Ukraine this morning, close to where fighting is taking place, tractor dr… https://t.co/E0OiMEhx9u
All eyes are therefore on Europe, where the sunflower sowing campaign has begun. In France, the leading producer of oilseeds in the European Union, farmers are responding to the call and publishing, as John Decombard Where David Forgefarmers in Saône-et-Loire and Indre-et-Loire, tweets about their sowing.
And in the absence of sunflower oil, consumers will be able to fall back on rapeseed: like France Blue successionthe surfaces should increase – by 18% compared to 2021, to 1.2 million hectares, according to the The Minister of Agriculture.