The Indian population boom is over. The second most populous country on the planet, with 1.38 billion inhabitants, now has a total fertility rate (TFR) – which corresponds to the average number of children a woman could have during her lifetime – of 2, below the replacement threshold, set at 2.1.
These data come from the fifth national survey on family health, published at the end of November, which was carried out from 2019 to 2021 from a sample of 650,000 households in 707 districts of the country. The index was 2.2 in the previous 2015-2016 survey, and 2.7 in 2005-2006. This downward trend is much more marked in urban areas, where the total fertility rate falls to 1.6, against 2.1 in rural areas.
These new fertility data do not yet signify a stabilization, as the Indian population will continue to grow. “India is currently in the third phase of its demographic transition, where birth rates are falling but the population continues to increase due to the importance of its youth,” analysis Poonam Muttreja, director of the Indian Population Foundation, a leading NGO. The country has 30% of young people, aged 10 to 24, who are of childbearing age or will be in a few years.
Claims of Hindu nationalists contradicted
These results in any case contradict the allegations of Hindu nationalists, who are trying, in several states, to impose birth control. Uttar Pradesh, led by a fundamentalist Hindu monk close to the prime minister, Narendra Modi, introduced a bill in July that would deprive people with more than two children of public employment from promotions, if passed. and grants. The State of Assam, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Mr. Modi’s formation, also announced in June discriminatory measures against people with more than two children. The Prime Minister himself had, in 2019, on the occasion of Independence Day, mentioned a “Demographic explosion” and called on regional governments to act. The debate has become eminently political.
“National Family Health Survey Shatters Population Explosion Myth, Pulls the Rug from Under Those Who Say India Needs Coercive Population Control “, said in a statement the Indian Foundation for the population.
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