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The corona variant Omicron spreads at lightning speed – but causes significantly less severe courses and hospital admissions than the previous variants. So is Omicron comparable to seasonal flu? SRF science editor Christian von Burg classifies.
Can one say that the omicron variant is about as dangerous as the flu?
Meanwhile, the danger is actually leveling off. With the increasing immunization of the population and the mild omicron variant, corona is currently no longer significantly more deadly than the flu.
What does that mean in concrete terms, are there numbers that back it up?
That cannot be precisely quantified, especially since it is recorded differently who died of corona or the flu. In addition, the experts don’t want to get too bogged down in the branches, because the development with the Omicron variant is still relatively young and the knowledge is not yet fully consolidated. As an approximation, however, the following can be said: The mortality rate for a typical seasonal flu in Switzerland is well below 0.1 percent. Mortality with omicrons in Switzerland is currently around 0.04 percent. Or in other words: For every 10,000 people who fall ill, four die of or with Corona.
Do the planned easing make sense from a scientific point of view?
The occupancy of the intensive care units by corona patients is comparatively low, so that relaxation is now quite possible. In addition, in percentage terms, significantly fewer people have to go to the hospital than in previous waves (see graphic). The number of hospital admissions has decoupled from the number of new infections. And the number of new infections is currently falling again slightly. The situation seems to be easing further.
What role does the immunity that has now been achieved play for the upcoming easing?
Increased immunity is absolutely crucial – both through vaccination and through infections. Just as we have built up some immunity to the flu over the course of life, our immunity to the coronavirus has also grown in a short space of time during the pandemic. Without this immunity, the easing would not be possible so quickly.
With the increasing immunization of the population and the mild omicron variant, corona is currently no longer significantly more deadly than the flu.
How do the earlier corona variants compare to the flu?
In previous waves, the death rate with Corona was much higher. A year ago it was around 2 percent compared to 0.04 percent now. Until recently, Corona was far more dangerous than seasonal flu. However, the milder omicron variant, increasing immunization and better drugs against corona have led to a sharp drop in mortality.
Without the measures, many more people would have died.
So did the sometimes drastic measures taken during the previous waves make sense?
Yes. Without the measures, many more people would have died. The hospitals and intensive care units would most likely have been completely overcrowded and medical emergencies from non-corona patients would no longer have been able to be treated. However, when the right time is to tighten or relax the measures is often only known with hindsight.