The resentment in French-speaking Switzerland and Ticino is great, but in the end it was just enough: the “AHV 21” reform found a majority of 50.6 percent. What does this mean for the pension fund reform?
It could hardly have gone better for him: Federal Councilor Alain Berset on his way to the media conference after the AHV vote.
Switzerland says yes to the reform of the AHV. Sunday’s decision is historic. For the first time in 27 years, a reform of the most important social service found the favor of the electorate. And: For the first time ever, a proposal has been made that does not provide for an expansion of the AHV, but on the contrary involves cutbacks. In future, women will have to work until the age of 65 like men in order to receive a full pension. Thanks to the reform, the stability of the AHV is secured for around ten years.
At the same time, the referendum reveals a divided Switzerland. To put it bluntly: the Yes to the AHV proposal is male and German-Swiss. The fact that women are less keen on giving up their previous privilege at retirement age is obvious and has been confirmed in all surveys. But on Sunday, another ditch came to light much more clearly than expected: the Röstigraben.
In German-speaking Switzerland, a total of 55 percent of voters voted in favor of the AHV bill. In western Switzerland, on the other hand, 61 percent said no, in Ticino 57 percent (the bilingual cantons were allocated according to the majority language – Friborg and Valais: western Switzerland, Bern: German-speaking Switzerland). In the overall calculation, German-speaking Switzerland came out on top by a hair’s breadth. It could have turned out differently if, for example, the turnout in three cantons of French-speaking Switzerland (Valais, Geneva, Neuchâtel) had not been below the average of 52.2 percent.
Things couldn’t have gone better for Berset
But it was enough. With a yes share of 50.6 percent, the result was not quite as close as two years ago in the case of the new combat aircraft. But with a good 32,000 votes, the difference is so small that one can speak of a random result. The polls gave reason to expect clearer approval. Apparently, the opponents have caught up significantly.
Social Affairs Minister Alain Berset told the media that the Federal Council took note of the decision with “great modesty”. The narrow result makes it clear how difficult it is to find proposals that can win a majority. The concerns of the minority must be included in further discussions.
Berset himself should be very satisfied with the outcome of the vote. It couldn’t have gone much better for him. On the one hand, he goes down in history as Minister of Social Affairs, under whom an AHV reform was finally successful again. On the other hand, Berset and his party, the SP, need hardly fear that the bourgeois parties will get cocky after this nail-biter and launch radical pension reforms.
Is the higher retirement age coming for everyone?
The big question is what this vote means for further discussions about old-age provision. Because the current reform has been deliberately modestly designed, further templates will have to be prepared for the AHV over the next few years. With the current wave of retirements, the expenditure of the social security system will grow faster than the income for decades to come.
There is probably no way around a further increase in taxes or wage contributions. However, the dispute is likely to revolve primarily around the retirement age. On Sunday, FDP President Thierry Burkart spoke out clearly in favor of a gradual increase beyond 65 in the medium term. Mitte boss Gerhard Pfister, on the other hand, didn’t want to know anything about it. The only thing that is clear so far is that the Federal Council must present a proposal for the next AHV reform by 2026 at the latest.
What next for the pension funds?
The second important pillar of old-age provision is much faster: the pension funds. A reform of occupational pensions (BVG) is already being discussed in Parliament. The bourgeois parties have in principle agreed on a compromise, the precise basic parameters of which have not yet been determined. The party leaders asserted on Sunday that lower wages should be better insured in the future, which should improve women’s pensions in particular.
At the same time, there are bourgeois exponents who have doubted the necessity of this reform, at least since the turnaround in interest rates. After the close outcome of the AHV vote, they might see more reason to let the BVG proposal fail in Parliament. It is taken for granted that the left will hold a referendum against a middle-class pension fund reform.
Federal Councilor Berset, in turn, now obviously wants to use the AHV vote to give his own BVG proposal a second chance. This is based on a deal between the unions and the employers’ association, which is being opposed by the industry. The National Council clearly rejected it. The draft provides for new types of pension supplements for the BVG, which are to be financed using the pay-as-you-go system according to the logic of the AHV. Even new pensioners who do not have to fear any losses because of the reform should be able to benefit.
Next, the Council of States is expected to discuss the BVG bill in December. His social commission is having a hard time with it. Before the autumn session, she had to remove the business from the agenda at short notice. This, in turn, is likely to have increased the skepticism of some women towards the AHV bill.
Vote civil, vote left
However, AHV reconciliation is important beyond the pension dossier. After politicians in this legislature achieved little or nothing in other major issues such as the European question, climate policy or health care costs, a step has now been taken in at least one central dossier. This should also be important for the 2023 election year.
However, the results of the parties after this voting Sunday are mixed. The united bourgeois camp won the AHV and the initiative against factory farming, while the left once again won the withholding tax in a fiscal reform.
The Röstigraben should also give something to talk about, because the differences are so blatant. With the exception of Schaffhausen and Basel-Stadt, all German-speaking Swiss cantons have voted in favor of the AHV template. The majority were often comfortable; Zurich, for example, said yes with 56 percent. Majorities of 60 percent and more were recorded in central Switzerland. The reform was even well received in larger cities such as Winterthur, Lucerne and St. Gallen.
Quite different in Latin Switzerland. Almost everywhere, nobody wanted to know about the fact that women should work longer. This was the case even in rural areas where the bourgeois parties are ahead in elections. The reluctance was greatest with 71 percent no votes in the Jura.
The fact that expectations of the welfare state are higher in French-speaking Switzerland is nothing new. Conversely, concerns such as financial sustainability are obviously less important. In this case, however, western Switzerland must submit to the priorities of German-speaking Switzerland. Discussions in all national languages are provided.