Forecast until 2050
Plastic consumption will double if left unchecked
02/27/2023, 12:09 p.m
Existing plans against single-use packaging waste do not go far enough. According to estimates, consumption could almost double by 2050. To prevent this, according to a think tank, there is no way around a legally binding agreement on containment.
According to a study, plastic consumption in the leading industrialized and emerging countries (G20) will almost double by the middle of this century without further legally binding countermeasures. Existing programs to encourage recycling or reduce the consumption of single-use plastic only scratch the surface, according to a study published by Back to Blue, a research group at think tank Economist Impact and the Nippon Foundation. A comprehensive and legally binding global agreement to curb plastic consumption is therefore necessary.
The United Nations began negotiations on an agreement to combat plastic pollution in Uruguay in November, with the goal of drafting a legally binding treaty by the end of next year.
Up to 175 countries took part in the talks. If the negotiations fail, annual plastic production in the G20 countries could reach 451 million tons by 2050 at current growth rates, estimates Back to Blue. That would be an increase of almost three quarters compared to 2019.
“One must not give in to the illusion that the contract negotiations will be anything but difficult and treacherous,” said the research group. “The chances of failure – not just no deal, but one that’s too weak to reverse the plastic tide – are significant.”
Drinking straws and disposable tableware are already banned in the EU
The group is calling for a stronger ban on single-use plastic, along with higher production taxes and mandatory regulations that hold companies accountable for the entire lifecycle of their products, including recycling and disposal. These measures could limit annual consumption to 325 million tons by 2050, says Back to Blue. However, that would still be an increase of a quarter compared to 2019 and corresponds to the amount of 238 million filled garbage trucks.
The G20 countries that have yet to introduce a national ban on single-use plastic products include Brazil, the United States, Indonesia and Turkey, according to the report. Many single-use plastic products such as drinking straws and single-use tableware have been banned in the EU since July 2021.