Form check of the tour favorites
Vingegaard and Pogacar are frighteningly strong
March 12, 2024, 8:43 a.m
As is usually the case in Olympic years, the Tour de France will start early in 2024 – the starting signal for the largest cycling spectacle in the world will be given in Florence on June 29th. The favorites have now started the season, ntv.de looks at the form of the giants.
Jonas Vingegaard (Team Visma-Lease a Bike): After the laughter over Vingegaard’s grotesque new time trial helmet had subsided, there was little reason for the competition in the Tirreno-Adriatico long-distance race to be cheerful. Two parts of the day were enough for the 2022 and 2023 Tour winner to underline his claims to the triple: Vingegaard won the first mountain stage by 1:12 minutes, the next by 26 seconds, and he became overall winner – the pale cycling king scary good again.
Vingegaard’s preparation for the tour has already begun, and he only interrupts training twice for racing. You have to look for a long time to find arguments why Vingegaard shouldn’t be the top favorite on the Tour of France. At most you can find this: Only two professionals have ever won the Tirreno and Tour in one year – Cadel Evans in 2011 and Tadej Pogacar in 2021.
Pre-tour program: Basque Country tour (from April 1st), Dauphine (from June 2nd)
Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates): Fortunately, there are only a few achievements in cycling that leave you speechless. Those Pogacars at Strade Bianche are one of them. He won the gravel test of strength in Italy with a lead of 2:44 minutes, the clearest victory in a WorldTour race in the past 15 years. Pogacar, who loves the tough one-day races, may be the more versatile cyclist compared to Vingegaard. However, this will be of less help for the 2020 and 2021 Tour winner in the giant duel with the Dane on the Great Loop, where the toughness of the mountains will be particularly important.
In contrast to Vingegaard, Pogacar enjoys a tight mix of monuments and tours until the start of the tour. That’s not without risk: last year he fell at Liège-Bastogne-Liège and only got into tour shape with difficulty – but he lacked the decisive percentage compared to Vingegaard. A key factor will be the double burden of the Giro/Tour – it is not without reason that no racing driver has won both races in the same year since Miguel Indurain in 1993.
Pre-tour program: Milan-Sanremo (17.3.), Tour of Catalonia (from 18.3.), Liège-Bastogne-Liège (21.4.), Giro d’Italia (from 4.5.)
Primoz Roglic (Bora-hansgrohe): With some mildness, the debut of the expensive star signing from the German team Bora-hansgrohe can be described as reasonably solid. At Paris-Nice Roglic came tenth overall, but on the mountain stages he was a bit short of the very best – the day’s winner for Bora was Alexander Vlasov.
It already seems clear: Roglic can only fulfill his and his team’s dream of winning the Tour if Vingegaard and Pogacars suffer great hardship. The podium appears to be optimal. And even if the ex-ski jumper is a late starter, time is running against him: Only one Tour winner was ever older than Roglic would be – the Belgian Firmin Labot (36) in 1922.
Pre-tour program: Basque Country tour (from April 1st), Dauphine (from June 2nd)
Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-Quick Step): Rarely has a tour debut been awaited with such excitement as that of the exceptional Belgian rider. And the 2022 Vuelta winner, who was probably only costed by a corona infection to win the Giro in 2023, fueled the expectations: second place at Paris-Nice, winning the mountain jersey, winning the points jersey. Can Evenepoel compete with Vingegaard and Pogacar on the tour? This time there are probably too hard mountains and too few time trial kilometers. The time trial world champion is still a clear candidate for the podium.
Pre-tour program: Tour of the Basque Country (from April 1st), Amstel Gold Race (April 14th), Fleche Wallonne (April 17th), Liège-Bastogne-Liège (April 21st), Dauphine (from June 2nd)
Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers): Perhaps the best realization of the first weeks of the season: The 2019 Tour winner is competitive again two years after his terrible training accident and drove at Roglic level at Paris-Nice. It is not yet clear whether Bernal will take part in the Tour or whether he wants to continue his old form at the Vuelta (from August 24th). Bernal doesn’t need to rush anything, he’s still young at 27 years old. In the shape of his tour success, he, who was once expected to play the role of the undisputed ruler of the tour for years to come, could again become an equal opponent for Vingegaard and Pogacar from 2025.
Pre-tour program: Catalonia tour (from March 18th), Basque Country tour (from April 1st), Tour de Romandie (from April 23rd)
Who else was drawing attention? Above all, the (potential) helpers of the tour favorites: Matteo Jorgenson (Vingegaard) won Paris-Nice, the Spanish super talent Juan Ayuso came second at Tirreno-Adriatico, the American Brandon McNulty (both Pogacar) third at Paris-Nice. Overall, Pogacars UAE Team Emirates is currently making the stronger impression.
And the Germans? They started the season quite promisingly. Sprinter Phil Bauhaus (Bahrain-Victorious) won a stage at Tirreno-Adriatico, Lennard Kämna (Bora-hansgrohe) came eighth overall at Paris-Nice. Nils Politt (UAE Team Emirates), who is supposed to support Pogacar at the Tour, provided good help at Paris-Nice. The Bora celebrities Emanuel Buchmann (last drove in February) and Maximilian Schachmann (looking for form after two years of epidemics) are difficult to assess.