France / Eco: Disappointing Flash HCOB PMI indices in March

(Boursier.com) — The first quarter of 2024 ended, according to the latest PMI Flash HCOB data, with a further contraction in the French private sector. After the nine-month high reached in February (48.1), the HCOB composite Flash PMI index of overall activity fell to 47.7 in March, signaling a further decline in activity and a very slight strengthening of the contraction compared to the previous month. The consensus was positioned at 48.7.

The HCOB Flash PMI for services activity stood at 47.8 in March (48.4 in February), compared to 48.8 expected, while the HCOB Flash PMI for the manufacturing industry stood at 45.8 (47.1 in February), against a consensus of 47.5.

Norman Liebke, economist at the Hamburg Commercial Bank, comments on the latest results of the survey: “the first quarter of 2024 will not be that of recovery for the French economy, as suggested by the slight decline in the composite PMI index. Flash HCOB for the French private sector compared to February, which remains in negative territory. This continued contraction in activity mainly resulted from weak demand, the drop in the overall volume of new business ‘being in fact accelerated in March. This decline in the volume of new orders further translated into a more rapid decline in the volume of pending business, as companies turned to backlogged business to support their sales levels. Anticipating an economic recovery in the coming year, survey participants nevertheless said they were optimistic about their twelve-month activity outlook.