With a growth of 0.4%, according to the first estimates of the national accounts published on Friday April 30 by INSEE, the recovery will have kept its very timid promises in the first quarter of 2021. Returned to the green after a drop of 1, 4% in the fourth quarter of 2020, the gross domestic product (GDP) nevertheless remains 4.4% below the level reached in the fourth quarter of 2019. In short, if activity is picking up slowly, it is still far from having regained its level. pre-crisis.
These figures do not constitute “Not a surprise”, underlines Julien Pouget, head of the conjuncture department at INSEE. “With the curfew introduced in January, the closure of large shopping centers in February, the confinements that took place from the second half of March in 16, then 19 departments, and finally the whole of France, this quarter is still very marked by health restrictions “, he recalls.
Given the volatility of the situation, INSEE still does not publish half-yearly or annual growth forecasts. But the growth overhang is now 4.1%: which means that, even if activity was zero over the next three quarters, France would still post an increase in its GDP of 4.1%. compared to 2020.
Atypical behavior
The best news of this first quarter is undoubtedly that brought by the level of business investment, which grew by 2.2%, “A very dynamic figure given the period”, according to Mr. Pouget, after 1.3% in the last quarter of 2020. “The business climate in the industry is very positive, and the morale of leaders in the industry has returned to its level of March 2019”, welcomes Selin Ozyurt, economist France at Euler Hermes. “Companies take into account the fact that this crisis is transitory, and continue to invest, particularly in digital technology”, decrypts Mathieu Plane, economist at the French Observatory of Economic Conjunctures (OFCE). An atypical behavior, since crises usually interrupt the investment flows of companies.
Households, for their part, are still very reasoned in their consumption expenditure, up fragile 0.3% over the first three months of the year. But the prospect of deconfinement, the timetable for which has now been announced, gives hope for a more dynamic recovery in May and June. “Household morale did not deteriorate between March and April, despite the tightening of health restrictions, unemployment does not explode”, recalls Selin Ozyurt. The reopening of shops and restaurants as well as freedom of movement should, like what happened in the summer of 2020 when consumption had skyrocketed with an increase of 18.2%, encourage the French to loosen the purse strings.
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