PARIS (Reuters) – France’s economic growth will slow considerably next year due to geopolitical risks, pushing back prospects for improved public finances, the finance ministry said on Thursday.
Revising its long-term forecasts, the ministry said it anticipates a slowdown in growth to 1.4% in 2023 from 2.5% this year.
“The geopolitical uncertainties are major, on energy as on trade,” Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told the press, referring to the risk of a Russian gas cut, confinements in China and the slowdown in the economy. European economy.
Growth should gradually accelerate to 1.8% in 2027 when the economy benefits from the effects of the reforms, he anticipates.
The lower-than-expected growth expected for next year will have repercussions on the reduction of the public deficit, which will not change next year and will still represent 5% of gross domestic product with a return below 3% of here 2027.
Such an objective would be met by keeping the increase in public spending at an average of 0.6% over the next five years, said Bruno Le Maire.
“National growth must increase faster than public spending,” he added.
The table below shows the main macroeconomic forecasts of the Ministry of Finance for the next five years. Deficits and debt are expressed as a percentage of GDP.
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
GDP growth 2.5 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8
HICP inflation 5.1 3.3 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8
Public deficit -5.0 -5.0 -4.6 -4.0 -3.4 -2.9
Public debt 111.9 111.7 112.8 113.3 113.2 112.5
(Report Leigh Thomas, French version Nicolas Delame, edited by Matthieu Protard)