Should we expect to see a wave of protest similar to that which succeeded in paralyzing Ottawa? While various processions of the “Freedom Convoy”, this anti-health restrictions movement imitating that of Canadian truck drivers, set off from all over France this Wednesday towards the capital, the intelligence police are on their toes. According to a note from the central territorial intelligence service, including Europe 1 and the Parisian echo each other on Wednesday, officers “have trouble anticipating and defining this unprecedented movement”, explains the radio. Exactly like at the beginning of the yellow vests movement in the fall of 2018.
Extent of the mobilization, political profile of the participants, peaceful nature or not of the actions envisaged: the police have their heads in the fog. “It is a little early to estimate the importance of this movement launched on social networks, unrelated to unions”, confides a police source to Release. However, the situation is taken seriously. According to Europe 1, “several meetings have been held on Place Beauvau in recent hours specifically on this subject”. And despite some vagueness, some points are beginning to appear more clearly in the eyes of intelligence.
Five trips to Paris
First the route. It appears from intelligence that “five journeys are announced from all over France with the start of convergence expected from February 9, 2022”. Convoys must hit the road from this Wednesday “from the southeast” and the “South West”before being joined by other “from the west of France, Thursday February 10”.
This is what can be seen on various maps posted on the social networks where the movement is organized, which actually show five final journeys to Paris on Friday at the end of the day. A five-pointed star which should take shape after intermediate gatherings in Evreux, Chartres, Troyes, Reims, and La Rue-Saint-Pierre, near Beauvais.
How big?
Will there be people? Territorial intelligence is struggling to find out. By way of a thermometer, they watch in particular for the number of subscribers to pages favorable to the movement on social networks, like the Facebook group entitled “Le convoy de la liberté”, which “now exceeds 250,000 registrations”, as the police write in their note. This Wednesday noon, it even had more than 300,000 members. It remains to be seen how many will go from virtual to real.
A motley movement
As for the composition of the movement, it is considered to be very heterogeneous, bringing together “collectives of opponents to health measures”from “yellow vests”from “patriots” and “conspirators”, according to the territorial intelligence note. The police note that the “ultra-left movement”like “ultra-right” does not seem to relay the movement.
Above all, the French “Freedom Convoy” could be distinguished from its Canadian model by its lower proportion of truckers. Intelligence agents note that the drivers’ union organizations are dissociating themselves from the movement, but also that unlike Canadian drivers, most French truck drivers have “employee status” and so “do not directly bear the consequences of the increase in fuel prices”. We could thus find many vans and individual cars alongside heavy goods vehicles, which can make participants more difficult to identify.
Dissensions on the modes of action
Converge, but for what? According to the information, the modes of action envisaged are not unanimous, a consequence of the decentralized nature of the organization and the varied profile of the participants. “Disputes already oppose each other in the discussions, which are reminiscent of the internal tensions already observed in the movement of yellow vests”write the information in their note.
The police noted that some participants suggested “a complete blockage” to train “fuel and food supply disruptions”others of “Clashes with law enforcement”when some defend a movement “peaceful so as not to be discredited”.
What police response?
Faced with this movement with poorly defined contours, what will be the police response? “A preventive system will be put in place to block access to Île-de-France and Paris on Friday”comments a source to Releasewithout going into details. “Significant numbers will be deployed at the tolls surrounding Paris”, explicit Europe 1, which ensures that “the gendarmerie is ready to deploy its armored vehicles, in the event that it is necessary to push cars to a stop or even participate in difficult policing”.