To correctly predict the future, you must analyze the present accurately. It is this task that the president of Cigref, Jean-Claude Laroche, former CIO of Enedis, now mission director with his presidency, undertakes.
The organization of CIOs of large companies held its 53rd general assembly this week. In this context, it publishes the latest edition of its Strategic Orientation Report: 10 disruptions by 2030-2040.
Quantum, environment, fall of Gafam…
The next decade, like the current one, promises to be eventful in view of the prospective exercise carried out by the members of Cigref. It is true that the last few years have not been without chaos.
“The digitalization of all human activities continues in a world that is transforming at dazzling speed, marked by shocks that we had not generally anticipated, and whose scale never ceases to amaze us,” underlines Jean -Claude.
In terms of technology and innovation, Cigref anticipates two main disruptions. The first will be quantum computing which, by 2030, could be “operational and widely distributed.”
The CIOs are retaining as their breakthrough hypothesis an acceleration of quantum research allowing operationalization and distribution. Such a scenario, however, requires levers, such as increasing private investment and solutions to current technical and physical difficulties.
Towards a disintegration of telecom networks
The second major technological breakthrough will come from the deployment of 5G, then 6G, followed by “the introduction of concepts like Open RAN”. The resulting virtualization and automation will lead to “the disintegration of telecom networks.”
It is impossible to ignore digital technology and its impacts, and the environmental issue more broadly. Cigref projects a risk of high intensity solar storms between 2030 and 2040.
Such a phenomenon would deprive organizations of their electrical and communication networks. Which company is ready to face such a scenario? Levels of preparedness for this risk are “very disparate, except in certain military areas.”
Large companies also consider it desirable to anticipate a tightening of regulations on recycling (100% of digital equipment), a worsening of tensions with China and a withdrawal of the United States solely from its national interests.
Microsoft, Amazon and Google: I love you, neither
Whether a credible wish or hypothesis, Cigref wonders about a rupture which by 2040 would result in the collapse of the MAG economic model (Microsoft, Amazon and Google). The organization recently criticized the pricing policies of these now omnipresent giants, criticized but acclaimed despite everything.
This reality reflects the difficulty of doing without them, while accentuating the consequences of increased dependence.
“This possible disappearance of digital giants could open the way to the emergence of new players, but could also complicate access to certain digital products and services,” imagines Cigref.
Fiction or hope, CIOs project themselves onto a Europe which has been able to consolidate a successful digital industry and strengthen its strategic independence. On the other hand, this progress would be accompanied by “global and generalized surveillance enabled by digital tools.”
AI and its effects on work
Less dystopian, the 10th rupture originates from “progress in Artificial Intelligence, and particularly generative AI”. These developments would lead to radical changes in the organization of work by 2030.
2030 is practically tomorrow, with positive effects on employee efficiency and productivity, but potentially also job losses and increased needs for professional retraining. But Cigref favors the best-case scenario.
“New professions linked to the development and supervision of generative AI could emerge, thus creating new opportunities. This development could also reduce employees’ working hours, impacting work-life balance.”