HHello, it’s lunchtime in Paris and eight presidential candidates will meet and chat with young voters. An event organized by the French public radio station Radio France. Young voters’ participation is an issue of concern on the eve of an election in which voter abstention may be higher than usual.
What happened yesterday? Vladimir Putin put an end to the diplomatic efforts deployed, notably by Emmanuel Macron, by recognizing two separatist regions of eastern Ukraine and sending troops there.
Why does it matter? The Ukrainian crisis could further delay the announcement by the outgoing president of his re-election bid. It could a shorter presidential campaign already stifled by the last wave of Covid.
Until today, French Sovereignist candidates had straight ideas about the Ukrainian crisis. Their motivations were different because some come from the left and others from the right or the far-right. However, they were essentially putting all the blame on the West, and, of course, on the outgoing president and likely candidate Emmanuel Macron, who worked tirelessly to maintain a diplomatic channel with Moscow.
Sovereignists share the same disgust of the European Union, Nato, and the United States of America. They are however among the fiercest defenders of Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has just caused them a major problem by trampling on the sovereignty of Ukraine. By recognizing, on Monday night, the independence of separatist regions in eastern Ukraine and subsequently sending “peacekeepers” (ie armed forces) there, the Russian president further increased already high tensions.
A few days earlier, when asked about the Ukrainian conundrum, leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon defended the concept of a “non-aligned France.” He said the Russians should “not cross Ukraine’s border” and the Americans should “not seek to annex Ukraine into NATO,” even if it had never been on the table during this crisis. He also hoped that France would become an honest broker by withdrawing from NATO’s integrated military structure.
On the far-right, Eric Zemmour took a similar position. “For me, things are clear: the extension of NATO to Russia’s doorstep has no justification for Europe’s security and I am resolutely hostile to it. The Russians are neither our allies nor our enemies,” he added. Despite the belligerent posture of Moscow, he also considered that “NATO has no reason to exist, in all truth.”
Neither Jean-Luc Mélenchon nor Eric Zemmour or Marine Le Pen, a long time Vladimir Putin sycophant, had forseen the present situation. “The borders of Ukraine must be recognized by Russia,” Eric Zemmour said earlier this month. Marine Le Pen had suggested a barter: “To demand from Russia the definitive exit from Donbas” and “to recognize the integration of Ukrainian Crimea into Russia.” She had not anticipated the gluttony of the Russian president.
His decision has led to a split in the sovereignist camp. Its left-wing has seceded. It was a wake-up call for Jean-Luc Mélenchon. “A line has been crossed” and “whatever one thinks of the ulterior motives or the logic of the situation, the fact remains that it is Russia that has taken responsibility for this episode,” he acknowledged late Monday night.
The far-right tried to stand firm. Marine Le Pen expressed some doubts, noting “an eminently regrettable act.” “Everything must be done to find the path to dialogue to ensure peace in Europe,” she added. “From now on, the solution probably lies in the organization of an international conference,” she said.
Eric Zemmour spoke about a decision which “violates the sovereignty of Ukraine and the principle of the intangibility of borders,” but refrained from condemning Vladimir Putin. Instead, he preemptively blamed future US and EU sanctions, predicting they would be “ineffective” and go “against our economic interests.” To avoid “another war,” he proposed “a treaty to stop the expansion of NATO”– in other words, precisely what the Russian president has strongly been demanding.
A division of the candidates into two camps will quickly become clear during the campaign. On the one hand, the alleged sovereignists will minimize the consequences of the latest Russian annexation and refuse to attribute the sole responsibility for the crisis to Vladimir Putin. On the other, the so-called globalists will speak out for respecting Ukrainian sovereignty and against Moscow. Environmentalist Yannick Jadot, Socialist Anne Hidalgo, and Conservative Valérie Pécresse who criticized Vladimir Putin’s “violence” in strong terms on Tuesday will probably join this camp, along with Emmanuel Macron once he is a candidate.
If the current crisis turns into a war, this division could have consequences for the voters who are likely to act strategically. Jean-Luc Mélenchon could lose the potential support of some of the center-left voters, while Eric Zemmour’s pro-Russian blind conformity could discourage conservative voters to support him. Emmanuel Macron, well-positioned in the middle of the political spectrum, would have none of these problems.
Quote of the day
“End of campaign low blows”
Valérie Pécresse brushed aside on Tuesday the accusations of Ile-de-France ecologist elected representatives for her supposed links with giant company Alstom of which her husband was a senior executive. The head of the Ile-de-France region – which includes Paris – denied any unlawful conflict of interest and mocked “the end of campaign low blows”.
Communist candidate Fabien Roussel also denied on Monday accusations by Mediaparta French investigative website, that he was employed as an assistant to a member of parliament and paid from public funds without actually working.
Countdown
47 Days until the presidential election’s first round
61 Days until the presidential election’s second round
Thanks for reading, see you tomorrow.