French growth confirmed by INSEE at 2.6% in 2022

French growth held up in 2022. Despite the health crisis and the war in Ukraine, French growth was confirmed at 2.6% last year, according to final figures from INSEE revealed on Tuesday. On the other hand, it slowed further in the fourth quarter of 2022, experiencing a slight increase of 0.1%. These confirm the first estimates of the statistical institute published at the end of January. They are nevertheless slightly better than the forecasts announced by INSEE at the end of last year (2.5% increase in GDP in 2022 and contraction of 0.2% in the fourth quarter).

This is therefore the second quarter in a row during which French growth is slowing down. After falling by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2022, it rebounded to +0.5% the following quarter, before slowing down to +0.2% then 0.1% during the last two quarters of the year. . Overall, the increase in French GDP in 2022 was more than two and a half times less than in 2021 (6.8% that year).

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This downward trend is likely to continue this year. INSEE forecasts only slightly positive growth in the first half of 2023, with +0.2% expected in the first quarter as in the second. The National Institute of Statistics has not yet provided an estimate for the full year. The government, for its part, is counting on 1% growth in 2023. The Banque de France is much more pessimistic, predicting starving growth of 0.3%.

In addition, INSEE notes that household consumption decreased in the last quarter of 2022 (‑1.2% after +0.4%), “dragged down by consumption of goods“. Imports dipped (‑0.4% after +4.2%), “due to the decline in energy imports», and exports slowed down (+0.5% after +1.0%), «due to manufactured products“. So, “the contribution of foreign trade to the evolution of GDP is therefore positive“, observes INSEE (+0.3 point after -1.1 point).

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