In France, the recession will wait a little longer. In any case, this is the bet that forecasting institutes are making, which do not see a clear turnaround in the economic situation before the end of 2022, or even 2023. “ The 2.5% growth target for 2022 is still achievablebelieves Mathieu Plane, deputy director of the analysis and forecasting department of the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE). The growth slows down, but it does not falter. »
Since the beginning of the year, the French economy has displayed a form of resilience, in a very degraded international context. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.5% in the second quarter, after a decline of 0.2% in the first three months of 2022, marked by the outbreak of war in Ukraine on February 24. Thanks to the tariff shield, inflation in France remains more contained than elsewhere in Europe: prices increased by 6.1% over the last twelve months in July, which makes the country almost the best student in the euro zone, after Malta.
The concern fueled by central banks about the risk of generalized recession seems to have little influence on the business climate. Despite a slight drop in August, it remains above its long-term average. ” This return to school is special because the activity is quite good; 80% of bosses are rather optimistic”, even assured the president of Medef, Geoffroy Roux de Bézieux, at the Meeting of Entrepreneurs of France, the back-to-school meeting of French employers, Monday, August 29. This is one of the current paradoxes: although worried about the rise in energy prices, companies do not yet see the tide turning.
Surprising dynamism of the labor market
How to explain the maintenance of the morale of business leaders? Mr. Plane provides three elements of response: “We have seen very few bankruptcies since the beginning of the crisis, the financial conditions have been rather favorable and the order books are rather well filled. » In short, the problem of societies was ” rather to be able to produce than to find customers », all on a labor market which continues to show surprising dynamism, despite the slight rise in unemployment recorded in July.
Households are less dashing. Faced with the shock of inflation, they reduced their spending in the first half of the year, when consumption is one of the main engines of growth. Over the first six months of 2022, this item degraded GDP growth by 0.8 points, according to calculations by the OFCE. The summer season could compensate for this sluggish start to the year. “ We believe that growth will be positive in the third quarter, thanks in particular to the good health of tourism “, underlines Maxime Darmet, economist for France at Allianz Trade. In contrast, ” the fourth quarter looks much less favorable »he nuances.
You have 27.33% of this article left to read. The following is for subscribers only.