Gas forecasts for 2022 are at a very high level, and will affect electricity prices.
Gas and electricity prices should remain at high levels this year, estimates the public institute IFP Énergies nouvelles, for which “the only good newsfor consumers will be on the side of oil prices. “On natural gas, I have no good news“, said the president of the public research organization, Pierre-Franck Chevet, during a press conference on Wednesday.
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Prices have reached record levels in recent months due to a combination of factors: geopolitical and supply problems, growth in demand, particularly in Asia, poor filling of stocks in Europe and under-investment in the sector. “At the end of 2022, we (will) still be at very, very high levels, around 90 euros per megawatt hour for Europe», «to be compared to the situation in 2019 when we were at 20 euros“, predicted Pierre-Franck Chevet.
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“Good news” on oil
“As far as Europe is concerned, demand for gas is on the decline by 2030“, corn “we are subject to a set of factors at the moment which can have a somewhat long impactadded François Kalaydjian, Director of Economy and Intelligence at IFPEN. “In 2022, if we are unlucky in terms of the weather and if we end the winter once again with very low inventory levels, that will help maintain tension and pressure on the gas market“, he added.
“The gas forecast for 2022 is still at a very high level and this will clearly have an impact on electricity prices“, continued Pierre-Franck Chevet. The two markets are in fact directly linked, the prices of electricity aligning themselves with the costs of the last plant called upon to produce, often gas-fired. Other factors also come into play, such as the rise in CO2 prices (therights to pollute”) and the weakness of French nuclear or German renewable production.
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The course of electricity ishigh today and will remain so throughout the year“says Pierre-Franck Chevet. In 2022, prices on the French electricity market could thus double again on average to 220 euros per MWh, after an already very high level of 110 euros per MWh last year. “The only good newsis on the side of oil prices: after climbing to around $90 a barrel, they are expected to be flat or down to around $60 in 2022.