Containers awaiting boarding at the commercial port of Shanghai (China), March 31, 2023. Costfoto/CFOTO/Sipa USA via Reuters Conne
DECRYPTION – In 2023, international trade will not return to the level of the post-financial crisis years of 2008.
Should the glass be considered half empty or half full? The good news is that in spite of the still heavy geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties, international trade continues to develop. The economists of the World Trade Organization (WTO) predict, in their latest report published on Wednesday, a growth in the volume of trade in goods of 1.7% in 2023 even though they expected an increase of only 1% in last October. The recovery of the Chinese economy has a lot to do with it. The easing of controls related to the Covid-19 pandemic should free up consumption and boost international trade.
However, growth will remain weak compared to the average of 2.6% observed over the decade following the 2008 financial crisis. At the end of 2022, the rise in energy and commodity prices, the tightening of the monetary policy of the major central banks in response to…
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