Geopolitical situation pushes BTC price below $40,000

The geopolitical risks surrounding a possible war in Ukraine weighed heavily on the global financial market in the last few trading days. Bitcoin (BTC) slipped back to around USD 37,200 over the weekend before staging a first clearer recovery move north in the last few hours of trading. Investors should keep a close eye on political developments in the coming trading days, any signs of normalization and the resumption of diplomatic talks should ensure a renewed recovery rally. Only a recapture of the USD 42,000 in Bitcoin should again lead to an attack towards the highs of the previous week.

Best price development among the top 10 altcoins:

Terra (Luna):

Terra has been able to hold its own relatively well in the last seven trading days and only lost around two percentage points in a weekly comparison. As Bitcoin forms a new historical low this Monday, Terra is trading above yesterday’s low. Because of this slight outperformance, the LUNA course now ranges in the area of ​​the two moving average lines EMA200 (blue) and MA200 (green). Only a reconquest including stabilization above would brighten the chart picture again for a short time.

Bullish Variant (Terra)

LUNA price is safe to continue holding above the strong support area between USD 47.53 and USD 43.54. The bulls must stabilize above this zone in the near term. If Terra succeeds in stabilizing above the EMA200 and MA200 in the area of ​​USD 51 in the coming trading days, the area around USD 53.50 will come into focus again. In addition to the 23 Fibonacci retracement of the current movement, the EMA20 (red) also runs here.

If this mark is successfully exceeded, a subsequent increase to USD 59.75 is desirable. With the EMA50 (orange), the 38 Fibonacci retracement and the supertrend, several resistance levels are waiting in the zone around USD 60. If the bulls can also recapture this multiple resistance zone and also overcome the horizontal resistance at USD 62.92, the first relevant price target at USD 69.74 will be activated. Here Terra bounced off more clearly to the south on January 24th.

The chart image brightens

Only when this mark can also be climbed back sustainably will the upward movement expand in the direction of the 61 Fibonacci retracement of the current trend movement at USD 74.61. First investors should want to pocket profits. If this resistance can also be broken by the daily closing price, a subsequent increase up to USD 78.34 is likely. This price level marks the area before the strong sell-off of January 21, 2022. If this resistance level is also reached in the medium term and broken through at the end of the day, a directional decision will be made at USD 87.98 at the latest.

Here the Luna course failed significantly on January 15, 2022. A dynamic bounce back above this resistance puts the all-time high at $103.66 back in investors’ sights. Should the overall market also be able to recover sustainably and Terra overcomes its all-time high of USD 103.66, a subsequent increase towards USD 131.25 is to be planned. This price mark is derived from the 127 Fibonacci Extension. In the long term, a subsequent increase up to the 161 Fibonacci extension at USD 177.20 would also be conceivable. This resistance level is currently the maximum price target.

Bearish Variant (Terra)

If the LUNA course gives up both moving average lines EMA200 and MA200 in the course of a further widening overall market weakness, there is a risk of a further correction extension back into the orange support zone. A retest of the low at USD 43.54 should then be scheduled. If Terra slips below this support area, the correction widens towards the first bearish price target at $37.87. Here Terra already turned north in November 2021. However, if Terra falls below this support mark at the end of the day, the red support area between USD 34.76 and USD 31.34 comes into view as a target zone.

Increased resistance from the bulls is to be expected here. In the past, this area was hotly contested several times. A dynamic undershoot should then lead Terra back to USD 34.97. On a daily basis, this mark was last defended several times in September 2021. If the bulls do not come back onto the floor here either and the price low of September 7, 2021 is broken, a relapse to the old all-time high of USD 22.51 is likely. The maximum bearish price target for Luna can still be seen in the USD 17.49 area. As long as Terra defends the orange support area, there is still a chance for a new bull attack.

Indicators (Terra)

The RSI indicator is currently rising again slightly and is trying to climb the neutral zone between 45 and 55. The MACD already shows a buy-signal. In the weekly chart, however, both indicators continue to show a sell signal, only negating these signals would also significantly increase the chances of a rise back towards the all-time high in the medium term.

Worst price development among the top 10 altcoins:

Polkadot (DOT):

Polkadot’s price development in the last few weeks of trading can be described as weak. So far, the interest in parachain auctions has not been able to provide the hoped-for push north. Rather, after an interim rise to the yellow resistance zone, Polkadot fell back significantly in the last two trading weeks and is currently only close to its low for the year. Only a leap back above USD 23.49 would brighten the chart image for Polkadot.

Bullish Variant (Polkadot)

The bulls still don’t seem to get too excited about polkadot. Recently, it has not been possible to break through the sliding resistance line EMA20 (red) several times. The DOT price must now first break back north above the resistance at $17.89 to relaunch the EMA20. Only when the area around the 23 Fibonacci retracement at USD 19.69 can be recaptured can a subsequent increase up to the super trend at USD 21.08 be planned. Here again increased resistance from the bear camp is to be expected. If Polkadot manages to break out of this price level, a first directional decision will be made at USD 23.49 at the latest.

If Polkadot can also leave this resistance behind at the daily closing price, a subsequent increase in the direction of the 38 Fibonacci retracement is conceivable. The EMA200 (blue) is currently running at USD 27.36 just above this resistance level. If the bulls can sustainably recapture this resistance level and also leave the resistance at USD 28.77 behind, a march through to USD 31.46 is likely. This resistance unites the intermediate high from December 27, 2021 with the MA200 (green). The area should therefore be difficult to overcome directly in the first attempt.

The way back towards all-time highs

Only when the overall market can pull itself together and investors show increased interest in the new polkadot-based altcoins will the DOT course strive north more sustainably. If the buyer side can stabilize the DOT price above the MA200 in the medium term, a subsequent increase up to the 61 Fibonacci retracement at 34.47 is conceivable. If Polkadot does not take a break here either and continues to increase in value, the next relevant price target is activated at USD 37.38. This price level represents the trailing edge of the clear course correction since November 2021.

The orange resistance area is to be seen as a make-or-break zone for the coming months. A recapture should give Polkadot further impetus and offer new price potential up to USD 42.46 if USD 39.67 is overcome. If Polkadot dynamically jumps back over this chart mark to the north, the chart picture brightens further and price targets at USD 44.57 and USD 46.78 in particular move into the eyes of investors. At most, Polkadot could initially reach its old all-time high of USD 49.81 and its all-time high of November 4 at USD 55.10 in the next few months. Further upward potential is not to be expected, at least for the coming months.

Bearish Variant (Polkadot)

As long as the bears can cap the DOT price below USD 21.08, but at most below USD 23.49, a fall back to the year low of USD 15.85 can be planned at any time. If the sell side keeps up the selling pressure and Polkadot gives up this support for the long term as well, the correction initially widens in the direction of USD 13.13. Here the bulls are likely to try again to stabilize the DOT price.

However, if there is no resistance from the bull camp here, a renewed test of the historical low from July 2021 at USD 10.38 is conceivable. If the picture on the overall market continues to deteriorate in the coming months, a fall back to USD 7.90 or below can no longer be ruled out. The maximum bearish price target is found at USD 7.20. In January of the previous year, Polkadot formed a distinctive low here. Investors should currently wait for the DOT price to stabilize before making new long entries.

Indicators (Polkadot):

The MACD indicator as well as the RSI show sell signals and need a first dynamic countermovement to turn the existing signals into new buy signals. As long as the RSI indicator shows no signs of rising back into the neutral zone between 45 and 55, any recovery can initially only be regarded as a technical recovery reaction. Only when the 55 is overcome should new upward momentum be sparked.

Stability of the top 10

After falling below the USD 39,300 level, which was repeatedly mentioned as a key level, Bitcoin came under increasing pressure and fell more clearly to the south at the start of the week. In the last two hours of trading, however, the key crypto currency has been able to pull itself together and is again not far from this key mark at around USD 39,000. Bitcoin loses almost seven percentage points in value in a weekly comparison. Following Bitcoin, the majority of the top 10 altcoins are also falling behind on a week-to-week basis. The list of weekly losers is led by Cardano (ADA) and Polkadot (DOT), each with a price discount of around eight percent.

Dogecoin (DOGE) and Ethereum (ETH) also lost more in value at almost six percent. Avalanche (AVAX) and Terra (LUNA) in particular can pull themselves out of the affair better than Bitcoin with a price increase of almost two percent. Solana (SOL) and Ripple (XRP) were also able to limit their price falls significantly in the last few hours of trading and only show a price drop of around 2 percent. Looking at the rankings, Avalanche (AVAX) and Terra (LUNA) are able to capitalize on their relative outperformance and move past Polkadot in seventh and eighth respectively.

Winners and losers of the week

The weakness of Bitoin and the uncertainty about Ukraine again caused significant price drops in the top 100 altcoins in the past week. Apart from the stablecoins, which continue to gain market capitalization and rank almost unchanged, only 5 altcoins show a price increase. The short list of weekly winners is headed by JUNO (JUNO) with a nine percent price increase, followed by Klaytn (KLAY) with seven percent and Osmosis (OSMO) with a six percent increase in value.

The Celsius Network (CEL) and the crypto veteran NEO (NEO) are also gaining minimal value with a price increase of around four percent. At the top of the weekly losers are Radix (XRD) with 25 percent, followed by Ecomi (OMI) with a 21 percent price slump. Flow (FLOW) and The Sandbox (SAND) also each lost a good 19 percentage points in value. Around half of the top 100 altcoins have a price discount of 10 or more percentage points. Bitcoin must now dynamically recapture the important zone around USD 39,300 in order to contain further price drops on the crypto market.

Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not represent buy or sell recommendations. They are merely an assessment by the analyst.

The chart images were created using TradingView created.

USD/EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: EUR 0.89.