By rejecting the allocation to a “climate and economic transformation fund” of a remainder of 60 billion euros originally intended to fight Covid-19, the German Constitutional Court did not not just inflicted a severe snub on the government of Olaf Scholz. It has also plunged the European Union (EU) into serious concern, as the Twenty-Seven must shortly make several important budgetary decisions and will have to invest massively in their ecological and digital transition. they do not want to be relegated to the second division behind the United States and China.
In this context, the meeting of European finance ministers, scheduled for Thursday December 7 and Friday December 8 in Brussels, will serve as a test. It will in fact be devoted to several subjects, on which the decision rendered on November 15 by the constitutional judges of Karlsruhe could have major consequences: the revision of the community budget for the period 2024-2027 and, to a lesser extent, the reform of the stability and growth pact.
Since this summer, two camps have been clashing over the question of the EU’s new financial needs. The “frugal” countries, led by Germany, say they are ready to validate aid of 50 billion euros for Ukraine, while those in the south of the continent – Italy first and foremost – are also asking for additional resources ( around fifty billion euros) for other priorities, starting with the protection of the Union’s external borders.
Possible blockage of aid to Ukraine
“Germany was on firm positions, the Karlsruhe ruling will make it even firmer”, affirm, in unison, several European diplomats. For supporters of a strict orthodoxy in matters of public finances, such as the Scandinavians or the Balts, the decision of the German constitutional judges is the assurance that Berlin will not give in to pressure from more spending countries. “This is good news, as long as it does not call into question aid to kyiv”specifies a diplomat from a Northern country.
On this point, Mr. Scholz wants to be reassuring. “There can be no question of relaxing our support for Ukraine”, he said on November 28 before the Bundestag. But Germany’s categorical refusal to disburse the slightest additional euro apart from aid to Ukraine could lead to the blocking of budgetary discussions and, consequently, deprive Kiev of an envelope which should give it a certain financial visibility . At a time when, on the other side of the Atlantic, American aid is no longer automatically granted, this would be a disastrous signal that would satisfy Russia.
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