Already quite expensive and difficult to find, fuels are likely to see their prices explode from 2023.
Between high prices and shortages, getting fuel while limiting the impact on your budget has become a daily challenge for many French people in recent months. In recent days, some blockages in refineries have been lifted and employees requisitioned. Fuel deliveries should therefore partly resume. However, in the longer term, some economists warn of an explosion in gasoline prices.
During the year 2022, the price of a barrel of crude oil (Brent) experienced significant increases, rising from 80 dollars to more than 100 with peaks above 130 dollars. And the oil-producing countries decided, at the beginning of October, to reduce their production. It’s basically the cost of refined oil which affects the price at the pump. However, it is largely the victim of the decline in supply and imports, itself following the war in Ukraine.
End of aid and start of the embargo
After reaching 2 euros per litre, the price of petrol fell to settle in October at around 1.80 euros. An amount that does not delight motorists, but could significantly increase. In effect, the maintenance of the price at this level is largely due to an exceptional gesture by the government. The latter granted a rebate of 30 centimes per liter on 1 September. But in mid-November, it will be reduced to 10 cents and will disappear in January. Therefore, in 2023, “we will have the ‘real prices’, without the rebate”, analysis for TF1 Patrice Geoffron, professor of economics at Paris-Dauphine. “This will lead to a sharp rise in prices, which will reflect reality. Especially since we’re going to get there when the embargo on Russian oil will come into force “, he warns.
In the logic of an “end of abundance”, the fuel could thus reach 2.50 euros per litre. For many observers, the finances of the State could not bear the long-term cost of price regulation. The solution would therefore go through sobriety and new modes of consumption. Because beyond the current crises, oil will become an increasingly rare and therefore increasingly expensive commodity.