PARIS (Reuters) – The British economy posted a stronger rebound than expected in November but the weakness of previous months is unlikely to be enough to ward off the risk of a recession, which would be a blow for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak ahead of the general elections in the United Kingdom.
According to data published Friday by the National Statistics Office (ONS), gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.3% after a drop of 0.3% the previous month.
Economists polled by Reuters on average forecast a rebound of just 0.2%.
Over the three months to November, however, British GDP contracted by 0.2% against a consensus forecasting a drop of 0.1%.
A contraction or even stagnation in GDP in December could lead to a second consecutive quarter of decline, the ONS said, which would put the economy in a technical recession, although this would be mild.
“The long-term picture remains one of an economy that has shown little growth over the last year,” writes Grant Fitzner, chief economist at the ONS.
“GDP, however, rebounded in November, driven by services, retail trade, car rental and video game companies which all recorded a dynamic month,” he added.
Compared to November 2022, GDP grew by 0.2%, in line with the consensus forecast and after a decline of 0.1% (revised from +0.3%) the previous month.
On the foreign exchange market, the pound sterling is stable, at $1.276, after the publication of this statistic.
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said earlier this month that he planned to call a general election in the second half of the year.
The Conservative Party from which he comes is well ahead in the polls by the opposition, the Labor Party.
(Written by Claude Chendjou, with David Milliken in London, edited by Kate Entringer)
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