As Ukraine runs out of air defense ammunition, Russian attackers are carrying out massive waves of attacks on civilian targets. Among other things, Russia wants to get Ukraine to stop its attacks on refineries. Apparently the USA wants that too.
On Friday night, Russia carried out one of the most massive air strikes since the invasion of Ukraine began. Civilian targets were attacked all over the country. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, more than 60 Shahed drones and almost 90 missiles were fired into Ukraine.
Immediately after this wave of attacks, an interview by the Kremlin spokesman appeared in which he said that Russia was in a “state of war.” Until now, the term “war” for the Russian invasion of Ukraine was taboo in Russia.
The Ukrainian air defense fired again Army information 55 drones and 37 missiles. Accordingly, the Russians used 63 drones, as well as twelve Iskander-type ballistic missiles that were fired from the Russian Belgorod region and from the Russian-occupied Crimea, as well as cruise missiles, most of which were fired by fighter jets from the Caspian Sea region, i.e. far outside the limited range of the Ukrainian army. Part of the hail of drones and missiles were also seven Kinschal-type hypersonic missiles, which are particularly difficult to intercept.
Peak of the Russian air offensive
“We are currently experiencing the culmination of the second strategic Russian air offensive,” says Colonel Markus Reisner, who has been observing and analyzing the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine from the beginning, ntv.de. “Over the winter months, the Russian goal was to clear up and dismantle the Ukrainian air defense system through ongoing air strikes, primarily using Iranian and Russian-made Geran-2 drones,” said Reisner. Geran-2 is the Russian name for the Iranian Shahed drones, which are now also produced in Russia.
Ukraine, in turn, has withdrawn anti-aircraft defenses from the cities and relocated them to areas near the front in order to be able to respond to the increasing attacks by the Russians with glide bombs. “This led to an additional weakening of Ukrainian air defense deployed in urban areas,” says Reisner. “The Ukrainian shortage of anti-aircraft ammunition is making things even worse. This has led to the Russians carrying out massive air strikes in the last few days, taking advantage of this situation.”
Ukraine’s acute ammunition shortage does not only extend to artillery ammunition. Already a week ago reported The Washington Post said Ukraine could run out of anti-aircraft missiles to defend its cities by the end of March. Ukraine’s goal so far has been to shoot down four of the five rockets that Russia uses to attack the country’s cities. A situation could soon arise in which only one in five rockets could be stopped, the newspaper said, citing Western government officials who in turn had been briefed by Ukrainian politicians. The Washington Post points out that such a weakening of Ukraine’s air defenses would have serious consequences for life in Ukrainian cities, which in many cases have achieved a certain degree of normality despite the war.
“Russia is waging war on people’s everyday lives,” wrote President Zelenskyj in the morning on X. He urged Ukraine’s allies to help with better air defense. “Russian missiles have no delays, unlike aid packages for Ukraine,” said Zelensky. The drones are also not “indecisive”, unlike some politicians. “It is important to understand the cost of delays and postponements.”
US urges Ukraine to stop attacks on refineries
The background to the ammunition crisis in Ukraine is political disputes in the US Congress and slow processes in the European Union. In addition, Ukraine is also being held back politically. According to the Financial Times, the United States has called on Ukraine to stop attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure because Ukrainian drone attacks could drive up global oil prices and provoke retaliation from Russia. Reisner said in the weekly “Look at the Front” on Monday that the Ukrainian drone attacks affected around 10 to 15 percent of the Russian Federation’s refining potential. “This is not only a propaganda success, but from my point of view it also manages to hit the Russians hard in some areas.”
At the same time, Ukraine forced Russia to withdraw anti-aircraft systems from the front in order to protect refineries. This advantage would also be lost if Ukraine complies with Washington’s demands. The US government’s insistence shows that Ukraine is waging an asymmetric defensive battle on several levels: For the allies, the focus is not on Ukrainian interests, but also on economic aspects or political questions such as the chances of US President Joe Biden’s re-election. At the same time, Biden is obviously continuing to pursue his “boiling the frog” strategy, which is based on not provoking Russia too much.
The failure of the USA and the EU to supply Ukraine with sufficient anti-aircraft systems and ammunition is all the more dramatic. The Kyiv Independent reported citing local authorities that at least three people were killed and twenty injured during the night.
Dam on the Dnipro is on fire
The overnight attacks are reminiscent of the attacks on the Ukrainian energy supply in the winter of 2023/24. Among other things, the recent attacks destroyed one of two high-voltage power lines that supply electricity to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southeastern Ukraine. External power supply is necessary to ensure the cooling of the nuclear power plant. The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is occupied by Russian troops, but is supplied with electricity from Ukraine.
Other targets were the waterworks on the Dnipro, where the dam was on fire that morning, and the city of Kharkiv. The situation there is difficult, writes the Ukrainian news site RBC. The city is without electricity and there are also problems with the internet and water supply. The capital Kiev was also attacked again. The capital was already the primary target of a massive wave of attacks early on Thursday morning.
Russia wants to “encircle” Kharkiv
Reisner said Russia is trying to “increase pressure on Ukraine to weaken its attacks southwest of Belgorod and its broader attacks on Russian refinery facilities through attacks on Ukrainian territory between Sumy, Kharkiv and Kupiansk.” The three cities of Sumy, Kharkiv and Kupyansk are located in northeastern Ukraine, on the border with the Russian Belgorod region.
After information According to the Russian exile medium Verstka, Russia is preparing a covert mobilization to recruit at least another 300,000 soldiers. The aim is to “encircle” Kharkiv.
Putin recently threatened to create a “buffer zone” between Ukraine and Russia. After his election performance, he said on Sunday evening that he would not rule out “establishing a buffer zone in the current areas controlled by the Kiev regime.” This must be so large that it would be “difficult to overcome it with the foreign weapons available to the enemy.” According to Russian media reports, the Moscow-installed head of the “Donetsk People’s Republic”, Denis Pushilin, said that the boundaries of this buffer zone would depend on which weapons Western countries deliver to Ukraine.