UNegotiations on Ukraine should take place by the end of the year. But the Sino-American rivalry may in turn lead to war. With artificial intelligence, the battlefield will be deadlier than ever. We are living in an era similar to that which preceded the First World War (1914-1918). These are times without defined rules between the great powers, a time in search of strategic norms.
Henry Kissinger speaks from experience. He turned 100 on May 27. He walks with difficulty, he has lost sight in one eye, he says he gets tired more quickly. The voice is less assured but remains deep, gravelly, carrying the echo of his native Germany. He has been following world affairs since the early 1940s. He is still just as pessimistic, perhaps even more so than when he led American diplomacy from 1968 to 1977 – first at the head of the Security Council , at the White House, then as Secretary of State.
Kissinger thinks Xi Jinping “would take the phone”, and Vladimir Putin too. The Chinese president out of deference to the elders, and his Russian counterpart out of respect for a supporter of realpolitik. Kissinger has things to say. He confided in journalist Ted Koppel, in a long interview on the CBS channeland during eight hours of conversation with the weekly The Economist. It was in April, just before blowing out its hundred candles.
How will the war in Europe end? The most probable is that the Ukrainian army will take over an additional part of the lands occupied by the Russians since February 24, 2022. On the other hand, the Russians should not be driven out of Crimea. “There is a risk of having a Russia but also an unsatisfied Ukraine, says Kissinger. It will be a balance of frustration. » To get out of it, Westerners must demonstrate“fantasy” and decide two things at the same time.
Willingly peremptory
The first is to immediately integrate Ukraine into NATO: “If I spoke to him, I would tell Putin that it is in his own interest. » Membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization will ensure kyiv’s protection, but also empower an over-armed Ukraine that still lacks strategic experience. The second movement will be, for the Europeans, to imagine a rapprochement with Russia, in order to “stabilize the eastern border” of the Union. “Realistic”, really, Doctor Kissinger? With Putin’s Russia?
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