When will the Ukrainian counter-offensive be launched? When will the troops in kyiv consider themselves ready to attack the front line? Since the end of winter, military analysts have been scrutinizing the slightest events in an attempt to see clearly into the strategy drawn up by the Ukrainian general staff, which has succeeded for more than a year in maintaining secrecy about its operations. “The range of possibilities is very wide. It is difficult to determine where and when the Ukrainians will launch their lines of effort ”believes Thibault Fouillet, specialist in military issues at the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS).
The only certainty is that the Ukrainians are actively preparing the ground for their operations. For several weeks, strikes on Russian logistical devices have been increasing, especially in depth, that is to say on the most rear areas of the front. Every day and every night, fuel and ammunition depots, railway junctions, telecommunications infrastructure, command posts or even soldiers’ cantonments are targeted by Ukrainian shells, rockets or drones in the occupied territories. but also on Russian soil.
This artillery campaign, called “shaping” in military language, is a prerequisite for any major offensive. Its primary objective is to weaken the enemy, by destroying its support systems or by forcing it to move them back very far from the front. In this respect, the Russian military doctrine, which favors the use of railways rather than highways to supply the troops, is not without advantages for the Ukrainians. “A railway line is easier to destroy than a road, and it is more difficult to repair”says a military source.
Long-range missiles and sabotage operations
To carry out this “modeling”, the Ukrainians have Western equipment such as Himars rocket launchers, which reach targets located up to 70 kilometers, even 150 kilometers away with GLSDB guided bombs. Better, they have just received British air-to-ground missiles Storm Shadow, whose range exceeds 250 kilometers. The first uses of these projectiles have been observed, notably in Luhansk, in the Donbass, or at an air base located in Berdiansk, near Mariupol.
Sabotage operations, carried out by Ukrainian partisans infiltrated into the occupied territories or on Russian soil, are also increasing.
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