Tribune. After an election campaign that saw the three parties vying for the chancellery (SPD, CDU, Greens) each vary by more than 10% in the polls, the Germans have not really chosen a radical change. At the same time, they refrained from once again placing their trust in the forces in place, hence a number of “Unresolved issues”, in the words of the play’s epilogue The Good Soul of Se-Tchouan, of Bertolt Brecht.
In the first place, who will govern Germany? In the parliamentary system, Members of the Bundestag will elect the Chancellor by majority. But the task will not be easy with the two parties around 25% of the vote (SPD and CDU, but nobody wants a new “grand coalition”) and the three other parties between 10% and 15%. The parties find themselves facing long months of negotiations to find a coalition agreement.
Unlike 2017, it must bring together three parties (and no longer two). In the meantime, Angela Merkel remains in charge of “current affairs”. Below 25%, the Christian Democratic Party, the CDU, lost these elections and find themselves with a historically low score – never before have Adenauer and Kohl’s party come close to such a disastrous result.
What lessons can be learned from this election?
In addition to the rejection of candidate Armin Laschet and the way in which he was appointed, this result also reflects the changing priorities of voters. They want the new government to focus on ecological transformation first. Questions related to climate protection, the evolution of the production system and the industrial model of Germany, and of course the financing of this transformation, are priorities for the Germans.
The CDU has not been convincing on these issues, and its candidate Armin Laschet in particular, Minister President of North Rhine-Westphalia, still the heart of Germany’s heavy industry, has failed knew how to suggest the tracks for the future. However, in the face of the obvious inexperience of Annalena Baerbock, the young candidate for the chancellery presented by the Greens, the voters did not opt for a radical change.
Despite his good performances in televised debates and his mastery of issues, Baerbock remained far from its best results in the polls. Alongside the Greens, the desire for change has also benefited the Liberals of the FDP. This will bring these two formations – Greens and FDP – to play a decisive role in the negotiations to come, despite their fundamental differences on questions of economic and social policy, but also on the role of the State in the transformations to be envisaged.
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