If Germany continues to lose
DFB team stumbles towards very rocky World Cup qualification
By Kevin Schulte
March 23, 2024, 1:17 p.m
Germany’s test matches in France and against the Netherlands are of course intended to prepare for the European Championship. But the road to the 2026 World Cup could also be rocky if the defeats continue. That’s because of the world rankings.
“Football is a simple game. 22 men chase a ball for 90 minutes and in the end the Germans always win.” This quote from England football legend Gary Lineker is long past its half-life. Germany hardly wins anymore and football is no longer an easy game. Especially when it comes to the complicated qualification and seeding list regulations for the big tournaments. This is shown by the example of the German national team before the international double pack in the evening (9 p.m./ZDF and in the live ticker on ntv.de) and Tuesday.
It is clear that the DFB team is under a lot of pressure before the two challenging test matches in France and against the Netherlands. After the poor start under national coach Julian Nagelsmann, including two embarrassing defeats against Turkey and in Austria, the DFB is aiming to turn the mood around in time for the home European Championships. Jersey discussions and excitement surrounding Adidas, Nike and TikTok do the rest. And it is also not clear whether Nagelsmann will continue beyond the tournament. One topic is completely ignored.
World Cup 2026 with 16 teams from Europe
In the next few days, Germany will also be playing for a good starting position for the 2026 World Cup in the USA, Canada and Mexico. This is when the seeding list for the qualifying draw is based on the Fifa world rankings is created. This is how it went at the last four World Cups. In this scenario it could be dangerous for the German team.
National coach Nagelsmann’s team is currently only ranked 16th in the world, but is still the ninth best nation in Europe. But after the recent defeats, the trend is going in the wrong direction for the German team, with further trouble threatening their top opponents France and the Netherlands. Additional problem: Test matches have less weight than competitive matches when calculating the world rankings. As hosts for the European Championship, Germany has only played friendly games since the World Cup in Qatar at the end of 2022. And only won three of eleven games.
If there are bad results in the next games, Germany will slip further in the world rankings. Switzerland (three places behind Germany), Denmark (five places behind) and Ukraine (six places behind Germany) could overtake the DFB team if, in addition to test matches, the European Championship is also ruined. Switzerland and Denmark can make up ground at the European Championships, Ukraine “just” has to beat Iceland in the playoffs to be at the European Championships for the fourth time in a row. Directly behind Ukraine is Austria, which has developed well under coach Ralf Rangnick and also qualified for the finals.
Qualifying group with France or Spain?
If Germany falls behind the teams mentioned in the next few months, there is a risk of draw pot two in the qualifying draw for the first World Cup with 48 teams. According to the seeding list rules from the last four tournaments, the best 12 UEFA nations in the world rankings end up in pot one, the teams ranked 13 to 24 in pot two, etc.
In the worst case scenario, Germany could play in a World Cup qualifying group with France, England, Spain or Italy. Because only the group winners of the twelve qualifying groups qualify directly for the tournament in North America, Germany would have to go into the playoffs if they finish second. Here the twelve runners-up in the qualifying groups will play together with the four best group winners of the 2024/25 Nations League for the last four starting places that Europe has for the World Cup. It would be a long, rocky and extremely risky road for the DFB team.
So far, Germany has only had to take the detour via the playoffs once. At the end of 2001, the team trained by team boss Rudi Völler qualified at the last minute via Ukraine (1:1 away, 4:1 at home) for the World Cup in Japan and South Korea, where they surprisingly became runner-up. At that time, despite being in pot 1, Germany ended up in a qualifying group with the English, who were also weak at the time, but who then won the group as a pot 2 team ahead of the DFB team.
England is also threatened with seeding problems
A qualifying group together with England, although Germany ends up in draw pot 1, would also be possible this time. In the draw, which is expected to take place at the end of this year, even England, number three in the world rankings, could slip into Pot 2. This is when FIFA allows UEFA to sort the qualifying seeding list according to their own system.
The procedure is as follows: The European football association sends its request to FIFA on the basis on which it wants to create the seeding list, a spokesman for the world association told ntv.de. FIFA will then make the final decision. However, UEFA has not yet approached FIFA. In any case, it is “unlikely” that FIFA will reject UEFA’s proposal.
UEFA could propose to FIFA to use the results of the 2024 Nations League as the basis for the seeding list. The league phase of the Nations League ends in November, and the draw for the European part of the World Cup qualification will take place in December, according to FIFA.
If UEFA proposes this seeding list principle and FIFA has no objection, England would, strangely enough, have no chance at all in the race for a place in the coveted first draw. The “Three Lions” completely ruined the last edition of the Nations League two years ago, so after being relegated they have to compete in this year’s edition of the tournament in the B league. According to the UEFA seeding principle, in this scenario the 12 best teams in the A-League would move into draw pot one.
The European football association only told ntv.de that the formalities “will be approved and announced by FIFA in due course.” In this scenario, Germany would only have to avoid finishing bottom of the Nations League group with the Netherlands, Hungary and Bosnia-Herzegovina in order to secure a place in pot one. England, which is currently extremely strong, would be powerless in League B. Football is a complicated game.