Fyodor Loukianov is a specialist in international relations, an academic and editor-in-chief of the journal Russia in Global Affairs. He is one of the most listened to voices in Russia and abroad, where he is considered to be a relay or an exegete of the positions of Russian power. He recently published a noted article explaining Moscow’s expectations ahead of the December 7 summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his American counterpart Joe Biden.
Is the current situation in Europe more serious than in the spring, when the announcement of a meeting between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin was enough to calm tensions?
Fyodor Loukianov: We are at a turning point, when Russia considers that the whole security architecture in Europe, all the arrangements established thirty years ago, are no longer acceptable. The idea that states could choose their alliances had been accepted by Mikhail Gorbachev, but successive NATO enlargements have never satisfied Russia.
A first signal was sent in 2008, with the war in Georgia. But, like the Georgian president [Mikheïl Saakachvili] was a particular character and that the situation was resolved quickly, there was no real questioning. Today we have reached the point where Russia is saying two things: it no longer accepts the principle of enlargements and Ukraine is a red line.
NATO’s enlargement to include Georgia and Ukraine has never been seriously considered. Why is Russia no longer satisfied with the status quo and asking for written guarantees?
This is what the West, and in particular the Europeans, kept telling Russia: “Don’t worry, this is just talk. We cannot say no to them, but they have no chance of joining us… ”At the same time, the Bucharest memorandum of 2008 makes it clear that Georgia and Ukraine will be members of NATO. This official document has never been denounced.
Then, why is this crisis happening now? There are two reasons. The first is the significant increase in military cooperation with Ukraine, mainly from the United States and Turkey. For the West to help Kiev significantly increase its military might is perhaps even more serious for Moscow than formal NATO membership.
The second reason is the belief that the political process of resolving the conflict in Donbass, the Minsk process, has been exhausted. And, at the same time, according to which no substantial dialogue is possible with the current Ukrainian president [Volodymyr Zelensky]. The bottom line is that you have to tackle the problem now, to avoid a real conflict later.
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