If Ukraine loses the war
The federal government expects ten million refugees
February 10, 2024, 8:37 a.m
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The federal government is preparing for the scenario of a mass exodus to Western Europe if Ukraine collapses due to Russia’s war of aggression. Germany would be one of the escape destinations. One migration expert fears an even larger number.
According to a press report, the federal government assumes that if Ukraine collapses, around ten million additional people will leave the country. In this scenario, the vast majority of refugees would set off for Western Europe; one destination country would be Germany, reports “Welt am Sonntag”, citing security circles and informed parliamentarians.
Against this background, the CDU foreign politician Roderich Kiesewetter demanded that Ukraine’s supporting states must significantly increase military aid in view of the USA’s current hesitation. “If we do not change our strategy in supporting Ukraine, the worst-case scenario of a mass exodus from Ukraine and an expansion of the war to NATO countries will become much more likely,” he told the newspaper. “Then ten million refugees is a lower assumption.”
Migration researcher Gerald Knaus shares the assessment of a mass exodus if Ukraine collapses: “If Ukraine were to lose the war, many more than ten million refugees could come to the EU,” he told the newspaper. “It is already the largest refugee movement in Europe since the 1940s.” Since the Russian war of aggression began in February 2022, more than a million people have already fled from Ukraine to Germany.
Demand for common debt for Ukraine
If the USA continues to fail as a supporter, Europe will have to step up, demanded the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Bundestag, Michael Roth. “The EU should then think about taking on joint debt,” he told “Welt am Sonntag”. The aim is “firstly to finance the Ukrainian budget and reconstruction in the long term, secondly to ramp up European arms production even more quickly and thirdly to purchase armaments for Ukraine, especially ammunition, not only in Europe but on the world market.”
Despite the current problems in Ukraine, the federal government assumes that the country has the military and financial resources to maintain defense and stability until the end of 2024, the report in “Welt am Sonntag” continued. Both German services and Western analysts believe major front breakthroughs are unlikely this year.