The director general of Ifop Frédéric Dabi and political scientist Jean-Philippe Dubrulle analyze the third week of the Ifop-Fiducial real-time presidential poll for Paris Match, LCI and Sud Radio.
Macron: the warlord caught up by the candidate
The streak begun since the start of hostilities in Ukraine has seen voting intentions in favor of Emmanuel Macron jump: on February 24, the day the Russian attack began, these rose to 25%, to reach up to to 31.5% on March 9, a staggering rise of 6.5 points in barely two weeks. But the score of the now president-candidate has since declined to 29% of voting intentions (-3 in one week). Although he retains a lead over his rivals such as we have rarely seen under the Fifth Republic (11.5 points ahead of Marine Le Pen), the “immunity” that could confer on the Head of State the war situation in Europe seems to be cracking as it enters the arena of the presidential election.
The refusal to debate and the exposure of the candidate’s program thus come to thwart the figure of warlord of the outgoing president – which has hitherto been particularly profitable to him – with a negative balance. In detail, Emmanuel Macron recorded his strongest declines of the week among the middle classes (-7), more specifically among managers (38%, -5), intermediate professions (28%, -9) and employees ( 22%, -9). Conversely, and in the wake of the revelation of his program – in particular the postponement of the legal retirement age – the Head of State attracted the support of 28% of François Fillon’s voters in 2017 and further reinforces the attachment of the right-wing people to her candidacy, while, at the same time, Valérie Pécresse is struggling to contain the flight of this “natural” electorate for her. In the home stretch of the campaign, and provided that international news does not give him a new “bonus”, Emmanuel Macron could see the voting intentions in his favor erode as he becomes within reach of blows from his opponents. Enough to have to do it to think about the post-Élysée, as he mentioned during his last press conference? Nothing is less sure.
False stagnation on the right
Apart from Emmanuel Macron, it is Éric Zemmour who has been most affected by the war in Ukraine: voting intentions in his favor have melted like snow in the sun, reaching a low of 12%. The polemicist-candidate, however, ends the week at 13% and sketches, after having stopped his fall with a false flat, the possibility of a rebound – as we could observe after his exit on the place of handicapped children at the school. On the right, her fate appears more enviable than that of Valérie Pécresse, whose candidacy is slipping. This ends the week with 11% of the voting intentions, after having reached its floor score of 10.5% – as a reminder, it was credited with 16% of the votes on January 10, at the time of the launch of the Rolling Ifop- Fiducial for Paris Match, LCI and Sud Radio. Floor score in the second round as well, where she would collect only 36% of the vote against Emmanuel Macron (64%), the same level as… Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Caught in a vice, the Republican candidate pays for her great difficulty in bringing together the Fillon 2017 electorate: only 41% in the first round, the rest being captured by Emmanuel Macron (28%) and Éric Zemmour (17%) mainly.
“True” crossing of curves: the Mélenchon dynamic
If the first momentum of the week is that of Emmanuel Macron, the second, upwards this time, is definitely that of Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The leader of La France insoumise ends the week with 13.5% of the voting intentions – his highest score since the start of the Rolling (+5 points compared to January 10). This increase of three points in barely a week allows him above all to take third place ahead of Éric Zemmour to set himself a next objective: to come and “hit” the threshold for accession to the second round, set by the 17.5% of voting intentions in favor of Marine Le Pen, relatively stable over the past week. A threshold to which a useful voting mechanism could bring it, which we have not yet observed, however, insofar as neither Yannick Jadot (5%), nor Fabien Roussel (4.5%) nor Anne Hidalgo (2%) see their electorates being siphoned off. Case to follow.
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