Important area code in the USA
New Hampshire is crucial for Nikki Haley
January 21, 2024, 11:02 a.m
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Trump refuses to debate his Republican competitors. Nevertheless, he wins clearly in Iowa. He is the Republican favorite in almost every state. This makes the next primary election in New Hampshire all the more important for Nikki Haley. A victory could convince more voters of her.
At the end of the day, it’s all expectation management. “I want to be strong. We won’t know what strong means until the numbers come in,” says Nikki Haley a few days before the primary for the Republican presidential nomination in New Hampshire. Haley could win there against former US President Donald Trump. But you shouldn’t bet on it, it’s unlikely – Trump is clearly ahead in the polls here too.
But the gap is significantly smaller than elsewhere – the 51-year-old has a real chance. The area code in the small state in New England on the east coast may even be their only chance. In the first primary election in strictly religious Iowa a week ago, Haley, who is considered somewhat more moderate, only came third. Her arch-conservative competitor Ron DeSantis came in second, a few percentage points ahead of Haley. Trump won in a landslide, winning by more than 30 percentage points.
Small but important state
In national polls, his lead over Haley and DeSantis is even larger. The race seems to be over before it has even begun: Trump, the unstoppable favorite. And a duel for second place between DeSantis and Haley. This tide could turn in the vote in New Hampshire on Tuesday. “If Trump wins New Hampshire, he’s the candidate. The game is over,” says Andrew Smith of the University of New Hampshire. There he heads the center for opinion polls and researches voter surveys. Only if Haley wins here will the Republican race not be over. “I think she will have a hard time winning, but she has a chance.”
In polls, Trump has an average of 49 percent, Haley 34. The state with its almost 1.4 million inhabitants is in principle not important for the primary election campaign, Smith points out. There are hardly any delegates to be won here for the party’s nomination convention. But what matters is what story is in the media after the vote in New Hampshire, says Smith. If Haley were to win here, there would be positive reporting and a lot of tailwind in the coming weeks. “And that’s priceless.” The former US ambassador to the United Nations benefits from the more moderate electorate in New Hampshire – it is therefore by no means certain that her success will continue here in other states. This is one of the reasons why Ron DeSantis may have more or less written off New Hampshire.
DeSantis is focused on South Carolina
The 45-year-old is well behind in surveys there, in the single-digit range. According to observers, the governor of Florida, who is restricting the rights of minorities in his state and restricting freedom of teaching in schools and universities, is focusing on the primary election in South Carolina at the end of February. His goal is to beat Haley in her home state, where she was once governor. A triumph over Haley would only mean second place for DeSantis.
Trump is also far ahead in conservative South Carolina. “If Nikki loses New Hampshire – which is her best chance of any state to win – and then immediately loses her home state of South Carolina, she has to drop out and we get our two-man race,” NBC quoted a DeSantis confidant as saying -Campaign teams. At the same time, Haley is betting on making her rival DeSantis look like a loser. She has declared the race in New Hampshire a duel between her and Trump.
Trump in his own world
Strategically, she refused to take part in another TV debate without Trump – and only with DeSantis. Trump, of course, rejected this. The 77-year-old has not taken part in a single Republican TV debate. While DeSantis was once his biggest competitor in the race for the candidacy, Trump is now increasingly focusing on Haley. DeSantis, who often seems uncharismatic and wooden, has collapsed in the polls in recent months, while Haley has fought her way up.
The two are now roughly equal in national surveys – Haley averages slightly better at 12 percent, DeSantis at a good 11. Trump comes in at 65 percent. His verbal attacks on the daughter of Indian immigrants show that he still sees a danger in Haley. As is often the case with Trump, they are racist in nature. For example, he spread the false claim that Haley could not become president because her parents were not US citizens when she was born. It almost seems cynical that Haley repeatedly emphasizes during the election campaign that the USA is not a racist country. She puts Trump’s racism into perspective: “That’s what he does when he feels unsafe. I don’t take these things personally, it doesn’t bother me.”
Haley does not clearly distance herself from Trump
At the same time, Trump’s former ally is not clearly breaking away from him – which is likely to scare off some more moderate voters. She promised to pardon him if he were convicted if she became president. There are four criminal proceedings against the ex-president, including because of his attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. At that time he lost to Democrat Joe Biden. “He was the right president at the right time,” she repeats like a mantra.
The fact that neither DeSantis nor Haley is attacking Trump because of his behavior after the election is also because they don’t want to alienate his supporters. If Trump does drop out of the race, whether for health reasons or because of his legal problems, Haley and DeSantis will need this. Observers assume that Haley could be aiming for the office of vice president. If Trump chooses her, it would be a smart move because he could attract more moderate Republicans to his side.
But it is possible that Trump and his cult-like following would prefer to rely on someone more radical from their own camp who is loyal to Trump. And Ron DeSantis? He has now become something of an intimate enemy of Trump. If the tide doesn’t turn, he can only try to leave the pitch as second with his head held high. And should get ready – for the election year 2028.