After a significant price drop to a new low at USD 53,237, the Bitcoin price can currently orientate itself north again. Bitcoin dominance, on the other hand, is once again tending to be weak and falling back towards 40.00 percent.
Bitcoin (BTC): $ 60,000 as massive resistance
BTC course: 58,294 USD (previous week: 56,040 USD)
Resistance / goals: $ 57,998, $ 59,299, $ 61,771, $ 63,189, $ 64,896, $ 66,299, $ 67,416, $ 69,000, $ 70,856, $ 76,472, $ 77,678, $ 85,563, $ 87,090, $ 89,982, $ 100,259, $ 114,961
Supports: $ 55,817, $ 54,077, $ 53,327 / $ 53,005, $ 51,307, $ 49,555, $ 48,222, $ 47,070, $ 46,309, $ 42,855, $ 40,585, $ 39,240
The Bitcoin price fell below the support at USD 55,817 in the last few days of trading and subsequently marked a new selling low at USD 53,327. As expected, there was a bullish countermovement in the orange support zone, which led the price of the crypto reserve currency back to the cross resistance of EMA20 (red) and EMA50 (orange) in the area of USD 59,300. Here, however, the bulls ran out of strength and the bears pushed the BTC rate back to the support at USD 55,817. However, this price level was defended for the time being yesterday, Tuesday, November 30th.
The bulls must now aim to break the red resistance area and move back above USD 59,800. Then the Bitcoin chart has room to march back towards USD 61,771 in a first step. As mentioned last week, new statements by the US Federal Reserve (FED) on a possible faster rate hike this afternoon could again increase volatility. Should the Bitcoin price subsequently fail through the strong orange support area and generate a new low, the focus should be on the area around USD 51,307.
Bullish scenario (Bitcoin price)
The bulls were able to avert a relapse below the orange support zone despite a temporary price weakness. With a significant upward movement, the buyer’s warehouse heaved the BTC rate back above USD 55,817 at the last second. As a result, however, it was not possible to stabilize Bitcoin at the daily closing price above USD 57,998. Only a recapture of the moving resistance lines EMA20 (red) and EMA50 (orange) at 58,490 USD increases the chance of a subsequent increase up to 59,800 USD. If the bulls succeed in pulverizing this resistance level, the chart will brighten further. In the next step, the buy side must do everything possible to dynamically recapture the resistance at USD 61,771. If the Bitcoin price rises above this price mark, another important technical hurdle awaits between 63,189 USD and 64,896 USD. Only when the BTC rate breaks through USD 64,896 per day’s closing rate, a subsequent increase up to USD 66,299 should be planned.
Here the BTC rate failed as early as November 15 and subsequently rebounded significantly to the south. If the buy side can stabilize the BTC price above this resistance in the coming weeks, and also break the resist at USD 67,416, an attack on the all-time high at USD 69,000 is likely. A march through to the next target price at USD 70,856 is then also conceivable. If Bitcoin does not rebound massively towards the south, but defends the USD 70,000 mark, Bitcoin could march in the direction of the resistance at USD 76,472 and USD 77,678 in the coming months. If these resists are also breached sustainably, a breakthrough into the medium-term target range between USD 87,090 and USD 89,982 is conceivable. The overriding price targets are still USD 100,259 (Fibonacci extension 361) and USD 114,961 in the long term (Fibonacci extension 461).
Bearish scenario (Bitcoin rate)
The bears recently managed to sell off the BTC rate all the way to the important support area between USD 54,077 and USD 53,005. So far, the BTC chart has been characterized by lower highs and lower lows. As long as the seller’s side caps the price of Bitcoin below USD 59,800, the bears will continue to have the scepter in their hands. If Bitcoin again falls below USD 55,817 at the daily closing price in the coming trading days, the orange support area comes back into focus. The buyer side knows about the relevance of this zone.
If Bitcoin dynamically drops below USD 53,005, a decision about the direction for the coming trading weeks will be made between USD 51,307 and USD 49,555. In addition to the 61 Fibonacci retracement, the EMA200 (blue) and the overarching upward trend line also run here. Once again the cops will do their utmost not to give up this area. If the Bitcoin price falls below this range, the make-or-break level at USD 48,222 comes into focus as the last lifeline. Breaking this key support level will extend the correction to at least $ 47,070.
The end of the uptrend is looming
If there is no bullish counter-reaction here, too, the chart image becomes significantly cloudy. Only the MA200 (green) at USD 46,309 can still prevent the end of the uptrend. If this last potential turning point is also abandoned, the correction gains further momentum. Bitcoin is likely to break down to $ 42,855 immediately. Here is the 38 Fibonacci retracement of the higher-level upward movement. If this support level is also broken at the daily closing price, a relapse to the low from September 2021 at USD 40,585 should be planned.
If this support is reached and does not stop, Bitcoin should aim for its maximum bearish price target at USD 39,240. Below this price level, the next crypto winter threatens and prices of USD 30,000 or lower can no longer be ruled out. A small ray of hope for the bulls can be seen when looking at the indicators. A bullish divergence is currently developing. In addition, the RSI was able to work its way back into the neutral zone. Since the MACD indicator is also close to a new buy signal, a bottoming out could be imminent.
Bitcoin dominance: BTC dominance threatens to drop to its annual low
Bitcoin dominance cannot stabilize even in the last seven trading days. The BTC dominance did not manage to regain the strong resistance at 42.99 percent and fell back to a new low on Wednesday, December 1, and only rebounded northwards at the price support at 41.13 percent. The fact that the BTC dominance is still clearly below EMA20 (red) and EMA50 (orange) shows you the weakness impressively. As long as the dominance does not quickly rise back above 41.94 percent towards 42.38 percent, the correction movement is likely to expand.
BTC Dominance: Bullish Scenario
The dominance of the crypto reserve currency tends to be weak and has since dropped to a new weekly low of 41.13 percent. Although the BTC dominance is currently trading slightly above its daily low at 41.38 percentage points, as long as the price does not regain the resistance at 41.94 percent, the view should be directed further south. If this resist is successfully regained, the 42.38 percent mark will first come into focus again. If this resistance can subsequently also be broken and the EMA20 (red) can also be skipped, a short-term directional decision can be expected in the area of 42.99 percent. Only when the Bitcoin dominance skips this price level and also recaptures the EMA50 (orange) can a clearer recovery be imagined.
Then there is an upside potential back to 44.25 percent. The MA200 (green) and the supertrend in the daily chart are also currently running here. A ricochet is likely on the first try. Should the BTC dominance get stuck in this zone and break out dynamically above this chart mark, a march through to the top of the red box at 44.82 percent should be planned. This also gradually brightens the chart image. If the Bitcoin dominance can break out of the red box in the medium term, a march through to the strong resistance at 45.71 percent is conceivable. Just above it, there is another strong resist, the EMA200 (blue). From the current point of view, the blue zone between 45.71 percent and 46.14 percent is to be seen as the maximum recreational goal for the time being.
BTC Dominance: Bearish Scenario
Bitcoin’s market power decreased again this week. The relapse below the previous week’s low of 41.94 percent caused another slide south. Only at the support at 41.13 percent does a bullish countermovement occur in the last hours of trading. If there is no sustainable recovery movement and the BTC dominance slips back below 41.13 percent at the daily closing price, the support at 40.66 percent moves directly into the focus of investors. As in the previous week’s analysis, there is a threat of a retest of the psychologically important 40 percent mark. If Bitcoin dominance continues to trend weakly here, a relapse to the annual low of 39.66 percent is likely.
If the bulls give up this price mark in the coming weeks, a further acceleration in the trend should be planned. A widening of the correction to support at 37.67 percent can then no longer be ruled out. In the long term, the Bitcoin dominance could even lose its hold and give way to the psychologically important 30 percent mark in the next six months. The declining market power of Bitcoin can currently be seen impressively with a look at the Ethereum / Bitcoin chart. The chart made a new high for the year today and could continue to rise in the coming weeks.
Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not constitute buy or sell recommendations. They are only an assessment of the analyst.
The chart images were created using TradingView created.
USD / EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: 0.88 euros.