Dor several months, the revolt of Iranian women and young people has confirmed both the dynamics of an Iranian society resolutely open to universal ideals of freedom and the paralysis, as well as the violence, of the conservative government in Tehran, incapable of responding to the legitimate needs and expectations of the population. The governments of democratic countries and the European Union have unequivocally condemned these intolerable violations of human rights.
But the deep and lasting revolt of the Iranians actually reveals a more global crisis. This is the result of the policy of the Conservative government in power, but also of Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw, in 2018, from the nuclear agreement signed in 2015 after a long diplomatic confrontation. The economic sanctions then ruined the hopes of economic development and political change carried by the new Iranian middle class, and pushed the Islamic Republic to relaunch in retaliation its nuclear program hitherto under the strict control of the International Agency for atomic energy (IAEA).
Admittedly, it will take a few years for Iran to have the beginnings of an operational and credible nuclear arsenal, but the Islamic Republic is already, de facto, on the “nuclear threshold”. The IAEA, which continues to inspect Iranian nuclear sites, has confirmed that Iran now has a stockpile of uranium enriched to more than 60% sufficient to manufacture one or two atomic bombs. This situation is diplomatically unacceptable, as Iran is still a member of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. This perspective is dangerous in a region where the representation that politicians and peoples have of threats is stronger than reality. For Israel, it is a casus belli.
Europe directly affected
We are witnessing a return to the 2000s, with the multiplication of alarming signals on the threat of a large-scale Israeli intervention to respond to the return of the threat of the Iranian nuclear program. Benyamin Netanyahu, the new Prime Minister, clearly recalled: “My priority is Iran. » The risk of military action has now been made more credible since the “Abraham Accords” enabled Israel to reinforce its presence, official or clandestine, on Iran’s borders. Recent drone attacks on Iranian factories may be the harbingers of larger actions.
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