The Serbian Republic has put its threats into action by having its parliament adopt laws separating it from the central state of Bosnia and Herzegovina by its parliament on Friday, December 10. As announced by the elected Serbian to the tripartite presidency of Bosnia, Milorad Dodik, these laws, applicable within six months, concern defense (army and intelligence services), justice and taxation. If they were applied in June 2022, this would de facto lead to the Bosnian-Serbian nationalist camp to secede from Sarajevo. The last time such a Serbian plan was implemented, thirty years ago, was war.
For Milorad Dodik, the six-month period that begins “Will show if Bosnia and Herzegovina can survive”. Him “Thinks she can’t”, he reminded the deputies. The strong man of Banja Luka calls for the withdrawal of the 142 laws adopted since the Dayton peace agreement of 1995 to strengthen the central state to the detriment of the two entities that make up the country – the Serbian Republic and the Bosnian Croatian Federation – , and no longer recognizes the authority of the high international representative in Bosnia, Christian Schmidt.
“Attack on the peace”
Mr. Dodik’s failure on Friday in the Parliament of Banja Luka, the capital of the Serbian Republic, was to fail to convince the Bosnian-Serb opposition forces to follow him. Opposition leader Mirko Sarovic said “The path chosen by Mr. Dodik is dangerous”, and “Whoever thinks he can do this without war is mistaken”. Ironically in political life, Mr. Sarovic now heads the Serbian Democratic Party (SDS), created by Radovan Karadzic, the Bosnian-Serbian political leader of the war years, therefore the party which seceded in 1992 and triggered, on order from Belgrade, the Bosnian War. The decisions were this time voted by the only deputies of the Party of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) of Mr. Dodik.
The other two Bosnian co-chairs responded to the threat. Sefik Dzaferovic, elected Bosnian Muslim nationalist, said that “The attack on the state and against the constitutional order is an attack on peace”. Zeljko Komsic, elected non-nationalist Croatian, who represents a line for a unitary Bosnia, called on the Constitutional Court to “Prosecute those responsible” of this separatist threat.
For Milorad Dodik to carry out his threats is a failure for the maker of the Dayton accord, the United States, as well as for the European Union (EU), which has taken over from the forces of the United States. NATO to guarantee peace in Bosnia. While Mr Dodik is strongly supported on one side by Serbia and Russia, and on the other side by Bosnian-Croat nationalist forces and Croatia, the EU does not appear to have the political clout to stop the separatist process. She herself is divided, with some nationalist European leaders, such as those from Hungary or Slovenia, also supporting Mr Dodik. Maintaining peace in the former Yugoslavia will therefore be, until June 2022, one of the major challenges of the French presidency of the EU.