The International Energy Agency is warning Europe of the consequences, starting this winter and next year, of a possible total cut off of Russian gas.
Gas saving measures in Europe will be “crucialthis winter to keep stocks at sufficient levels in the event of a total Russian gas cut and “late cold spell“Said Monday the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its quarterly report.
The drying up of Russian gas, in response to the sanctions imposed on Moscow since the invasion of Ukraine, has caused prices to explode on world markets and led Europeans to obtain supplies from other sources, importing natural gas on a massive scale. liquefied gas (LNG), in particular American, and Norwegian gas. Thanks to this diversification strategy,gas stocks were almost 90% full at the end of September“Said the IEA, based in Paris, while warning Europe of the consequences, from this winter and next year, of a possible total cut off of Russian gas.
A reduction of around 9%
In its report, the agency established winter projections for these stocks “in the event of a complete shutdown of Russian supplies from November 1and depending on LNG inputs, a resource which is now subject toworld competition“. “Without a reduction in gas demand and if the Russian supply is completely cut off, storages would be less than 20% full in February, assuming a high level of LNG supply” and “to nearly 5% in the event of low LNG supply“warns the IEA. A meltdown in stocks at such levels “would increase the risk of supply disruption in the event of a late cold snap“Insists the OECD Energy Agency in its press release. To ward off this scenario, the IEA therefore believes that Europe will have to observe savings measures “crucial” for “maintain inventories at adequate levels until the end of the heating season“.
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According to its projections, a reduction during the winter of European gas demand of around 9% compared to the average of the last five years, “would be required to maintain these inventory levels above 25%» in the event of lower LNG inflows. And this demand would have to drop by 13% compared to this five-year average “to maintain storage levels above 33%», in the event of low LNG inputs.
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