“It’s the general euphoria, all our customers are overwhelmed. The main concern of business leaders today is to manage human resources issues! ” For Céline Chicot, partner in the chartered accountant firm GMBA, the recovery is there, and indeed there. His colleague Frédéric Maillard, from the Exco network, which supports many tertiary companies, particularly in catering, adds: “We can’t even say that it is resuming crescendo : the recovery was immediate and very dynamic. Apart from a few hotels which have not regained their clientele, my clients are rather confronted with supply problems – and purchase prices which increase… that of veal, for example, has doubled. Business leaders have dark circles under their eyes, but they are happy. “
The Banque de France, which published its monthly economic survey Monday, June 14, confirms this: activity accelerated significantly in May, following the deconfinement stages, and the rebound is even promising to be faster than expected. Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to regain half a point in the second quarter of 2021, after declining 0.1 point in the first quarter. The outlook allows the financial institution to revise its projections upwards. The growth of the French economy could thus reach 5.75% at the end of the year, instead of the 5.5% forecast three months ago. This figure is significantly higher than that of the euro area average, which stands at 4.6%. GDP growth would then settle at 4% in 2022, then at 2% in 2023. “It would then find the same rhythm as what we estimated at this time before the health crisis”, indicates the Bank of France.
For the time being, it is largely the French who fuel this dynamic through their spending. Not being able to go on weekends, frustrated with going out, they not only congregated on restaurant terraces as soon as the restrictions were lifted, but also flocked to DIY items, phones or laptops, books, bicycles and other two-wheelers. Non-food retail sales jumped 28% in May as households had savings to spend.
According to the latest figures, “Covid savings” reached 142 billion euros at the end of March and could approach 180 billion by the end of the year. “This represents a reserve of growth for the following years could go up to 7 points of GDP”, emphasizes Olivier Garnier, chief economist of the Banque de France. About 20% of this savings would be spent or invested this year, in particular in the development of housing.
You have 50.16% of this article left to read. The rest is for subscribers only.