In Sudan, mediations fail and the fear of regionalization of the conflict increases

Since April 15 and the start of hostilities between the Sudanese Armed Forces (FAS) of General Abdel Fattah Al-Bourhane and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of General Mohamed Hamdan Daglo known as “Hemetti”, all attempts at international mediation have failed. The summits follow one another without any negotiated solution or lasting ceasefire emerging. The one held Thursday, July 13 in Cairo, in the presence of the Egyptian president, one of General Al-Bourhane’s strongest supporters, and six other heads of neighboring states of Sudan, did not escape the rule. At its conclusion, the leaders gathered said to themselves “worried about the deterioration of the situation” and stressed the importance “to prevent the fragmentation of the country” without being able to outline a plan for ending the crisis between two belligerents who do not give up the idea of ​​a total victory over their adversary.

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So far, they had taken advantage of the multiple truces negotiated in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, to reorganize their troops and continue their abuses against the population. In three months, the conflict has killed more than 3,000 civilians and displaced more than 3 million people, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM).

Noting that none of the commitments made by the two parties to set up humanitarian corridors had been respected, the United States announced, on June 21, the suspension of the talks in Jeddah, which began two months earlier in Saudi Arabia. . Faced with this impasse, the African Union (AU) then drew up a “plan for de-escalation in Sudan”, including politicians and representatives from Sudanese civil society likely to embody a third way. Its roadmap did not, however, lead to any concrete crisis resolution mechanism.

“Competitive Mediation”

In the meantime, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) has regained control of the Sudanese file, trying in vain to organize a face-to-face meeting between the two enemy generals. At a summit on Monday in Addis Ababa, the organization that brings together the leaders of the Horn of Africa also considered the deployment of an East African interposition force in Sudan to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid and the protection of civilians. The project was immediately rejected by the FAS, on the pretext that any external intervention would be perceived as “an aggression and an attack on the sovereignty of the country”. Beyond the nationalist harangue, the army multiplies the criticisms with regard to the Kenyan president, William Ruto, who took the head of the East African mediation, accusing him of playing into the hands of the FSR.

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