The Turks call the Bosphorus the “gorge of Istanbul”, Istanbul Bogazi, a way of reminding us that this maritime artery, among the busiest on the planet, is under their strict control. Under an international treaty dating from the last century, only Turkey decides who can enter or leave the Black Sea. Located on the borders of several worlds – Balkan, Slavic, Mediterranean – this hitherto uneventful sea has been the scene of continuous clashes since the invasion launched by Vladimir Putin on February 24, 2022. It is “the new center of gravity of war”, warned President Volodymyr Zelensky. On the one hand, Ukrainian port infrastructure is regularly subject to Russian attacks. On the other hand, kyiv’s drones and missiles harass Moscow’s fleet. Beyond the fighting, two major protagonists – Turkey and Russia – measure each other on either side of its shores, in an ambiguous and sometimes brutal game. A sort of “hostile collaboration” which is worrying.
In peacetime, a quarter of the world’s grain trade passed through this route. This is no longer the case. Exports of wheat, barley, corn and sunflower oil produced massively by Ukraine and Russia are in free fall, due to the naval blockade imposed by Moscow for the first, because of Western sanctions for second. The transit of commercial ships has consequently decreased: 35,146 passages via the Bosphorus have been recorded by the Turkish navy in 2022, compared to 48,000 on average before the conflict.
Bulk carriers continue to load grain from Odessa, Pivdenny, Chornomorsk, Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea coast. Established by kyiv and its allies in the summer of 2023 despite opposition from the Kremlin, a grain corridor has enabled the export of fifteen million tonnes of agricultural products. Volumes still insufficient. If they want to survive, Ukrainian farmers need to export more. It would still be necessary to get rid of the naval mines which drift with the current and hinder the proper functioning of the corridor.
“Avoid escalation”
Navigating these militarized waves is a risky gamble that few shipowners are willing to take. Insuring boats and their cargo is expensive. On December 27, 2023, a Panama-flagged cargo ship heading to the Ukrainian port of Izmail to load grain was damaged in the Gulf of the Danube. Two sailors were injured by the explosion of a floating mine. A few months earlier, two other of these devices had exploded at the entrance to the Turkish ports of Kastamonu and Eregli, without causing any casualties.
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