In the field of opinion polls and studies, American Republicans and Democrats have their gurus. With the approach of the mid-term elections of November 8, particularly uncertain, they occupy a growing place in the public debate. David Shor is one of them. Of Moroccan origin, this son of a doctor and a rabbi is one of the most followed voices on the left. He began his career as an analyst in Barack Obama’s team when he was re-elected in 2012. Today, this 31-year-old consultant heads his own company, Blue Rose Research, based in New York, where he compiles data on the evolution of the Democratic Party in the United States.
The ruling party loses the mid-term elections, with rare exceptions, such as after the attacks of September 11, 2001…
If we look at the history of the midterm elections, we find that the ruling Democrats have backed down in almost every election since the late 1930s. The dominant theory is that voters are resistant to upheaval. They tend to vote for the party in opposition in order to stop the changes taking place, even if they don’t necessarily agree with everything that party promotes. What is unique in the current election cycle is that the Republican Party has managed to embody sweeping changes, without controlling either the presidency or Congress. As seen in opinion polls as well as in the by-elections that followed the Supreme Court’s decision on abortion in late June, this has translated into renewed enthusiasm among Democrats. But that was this summer. It’s unclear how that will turn out on Tuesday, November 8.
I have already been through six election cycles. This one is the weirdest of them all. We entered this year 2022 with the feeling that the elections would be a butchery for the Democrats. The very fact that we are now debating our chances of keeping the Senate shows how much the situation has changed. If we were in a normal election, the Democrats would have to lose between 40 and 50 seats in the House and four to five in the Senate.
What has changed in American politics since the 2020 presidential election?
I would return the question. What matters is continuity. Educational polarization has increased. The big changes happened between 2016 and 2020. The gap between the working class and educated voters increased substantially, in particular due to the Covid-19 epidemic, the restrictions taken and vaccination, subjects very polarizing. The other upheaval was the fact that Hispanic and non-white voters largely turned away from Democrats, as the 2020 poll showed. There were questions about the continuity of these trends, thought to be associated with Donald Trump , to the fact that his name was on the ballot. However, their causes are structural, we also see traces of them in countries in Europe.
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