Threats whose nature changes little, but whose intensity continues to increase: this is the first impression given by observing the new “prospective risk mapping”, published Wednesday January 31 by France Assureurs, the French federation of the insurance sector.
This seventh edition, based on a survey of around a hundred leaders of the profession in France, insurers and reinsurers, ranks, like the previous one, cyberattacks, climate change and the deterioration of the economic environment at the top of the ranking of main threats over a five-year horizon.
But if the order remains the same, the differences between each of these three major risks are reduced to their lowest historical level, while the potential severity of the whole increases.
The maintenance of cyber risk on the first step of the podium reflects both the need for additional progress in prevention, the increasingly clear perception of the potential magnitude of the impact of computer attacks and the worsening of the geopolitical context, explains Florence Lustman, president of France Assureurs.
Cascading effects
“We are still much less advanced in preventing cyber risk than in preventing other major risks that are better controlled, such as fire”she regrets, especially since the scale of the impact of cyberattacks is “less and less theoretical”.
Cyberattacks targeting French companies or administrations cost 2 billion euros in 2022, according to a study by the Asterès firm, and the cyberinsurance market represented 315 million euros in premiums in the same year, according to the count of the Amrae professional association.
On the second step of the podium, climate risk continues to increase, both in frequency and severity. An observation which hardly surprises, after a year 2023 marked by more than 250 billion dollars (231 billion euros) in climate losses and a bill for insurers which exceeds 100 billion for the fourth year in a row. We must also add the interconnections with other categories of risks, likely to result in multiple domino effects.
“We can almost say that climate change is the main primary risksaid Mme Lustmann, since it can cause shortages of raw materials and energy, malfunctions of infrastructure and networks, therefore a financial crisis and obviously a very large-scale natural disaster. » In total, the study identifies cascading effects between climate risk and nine of the 25 main risks identified.
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