The Aiwanger case
“There has to be a quick decision”
8/30/2023 11:36 am
The government crisis in Bavaria is not over yet. Economics Minister Hubert Aiwanger from the Free Voters had to answer a catalog of 25 questions in writing in the affair about an anti-Semitic inflammatory newspaper. He doesn’t have much time for that, says political scientist Jasmin Riedl from the Bundeswehr University.
ntv.de: Ms. Riedl, Prime Minister Söder has decided not to dismiss Economics Minister Aiwanger after the leaflet scandal. A grace period for the minister?
Jasmin Riedl is a professor of political science and teaches at the Bundeswehr University in Neubiberg near Munich.
(Photo: University of the German Armed Forces)
Jasmin Riedl: I wouldn’t call it a grace period. Söder gives himself and Aiwanger time. We have the situation that Söder committed himself very early in the election campaign to a coalition with the Free Voters and against a coalition with the Greens. That puts him in a bit of trouble now. Now he has this egg in the nest that doesn’t belong there. Söder would now like Aiwanger to be able to clear up any allegations in full. He apparently did not succeed in the special session of the coalition committee on Tuesday morning. Now Söder does not want to be seen as someone who acts prematurely, but rather carefully: Everything must have a basis in one direction or the other. And since the situation is currently still a little unclear, if not confusing, he gives both sides time with his list of questions.
Söder has said that he definitely wants to stick to the coalition with the Free Voters, that it doesn’t depend on a specific man. A wise decision?
Söder does it very cleverly. Against the background of this situation, which is still opaque at the moment, he tries to create time and space for himself, including argumentative space. What do you do if Aiwanger doesn’t answer the questions sufficiently? Or if maybe something new comes out? Söder wants to keep as many options open as possible. On Monday he said he wanted to govern with a middle-class coalition, and that could also be the FDP, although it is not known whether they will make it into the state parliament. Now he has confirmed the coalition with the Free Voters. Of course, they are not represented by one person alone. But Söder knows that the Free Voters are very dependent on Aiwanger. The Free Voters know that too, and Hubert Aiwanger knows that even more. The free voters are currently at twelve to fourteen percent in the polls before the state elections, and that is of course very much due to the figure Hubert Aiwanger. Conversely, the good poll numbers for him are also a problem for Söder. If he throws Aiwanger out, that could also have negative consequences for the approval ratings of Söder and the CSU in the state elections on October 8th.
If Aiwanger were gone, would the Free Voters have anyone with his charisma who could replace him?
Of course, there are also other leaders among the Free Voters who are well known in Bavaria. Minister of Education Michael Piazolo, for example. On the other hand, Aiwanger is the one who runs “authentic” opposition in the government. He has already done so in the current legislative period. For example, during the Covid crisis there were arguments between Söder and Aiwanger because he had made it public that he had not been vaccinated. Aiwanger is someone who has totally mastered the populist jargon: those up there, we down there. And although he is Economics Minister and Deputy Prime Minister, he has always been able to credibly play the role of opposition to the government. He also has the image of saying what at least parts of the population would like to hear. His supporters praised him, saying: “He doesn’t mince his words, he says what he thinks, he knows what we need, especially us from the country.” Nobody else among the free voters can fill this image in this way.
How could the government crisis affect the state elections?
It’s difficult for me to make a statement because it’s not clear in which direction the whole thing is developing. But what I’m absolutely certain about: if we have a survey that asks about the approval ratings for Hubert Aiwanger as a person, I would assume that the leaflet affair wouldn’t fall at his feet.
Söder has not given a date for answering his 25 questions. How long can he wait?
He doesn’t have much time. Immediately after his statement on Tuesday afternoon, two opposition politicians spoke up: SPD top candidate Florian von Brunn and Green co-chair Ludwig Hartmann. They say that Aiwanger should at least have left his post until the matter is cleared up, or that Söder might have had to throw him out immediately. After the verbal questioning of Aiwanger on Tuesday morning, the doubts could apparently not be dispelled. So then Tuesday afternoon these 25 written questions. I assume that the answers must come quickly, within 24 or 48 hours. I also assume that the opposition parties in the state parliament, i.e. the political competition, will not let things go so easily. Perhaps there really has to be a special session in the state parliament at the request of the opposition parties. They will take advantage of this situation. That is why a quick decision must be made now.
Marko Schlichting spoke to Jasmin Riedl