Erich Vad was skeptical from the start: the Ukraine war cannot be solved militarily, the former military-political adviser to former Chancellor Angela Merkel and former brigadier general has been saying for weeks. He is also calling for arms deliveries to prevent Ukraine from being defeated. But in the end there would have to be negotiations, so Vad in an interview with ntv.de.
ntv.de: The EU is increasing its aid again. She wants to provide Ukraine with an additional 500 million euros for weapons and equipment. How much will this extra money help Ukraine?
Erich Vad: I think that’s an enormous package. And Ukraine can do a lot with that, too.
What will Ukraine do with the money?
When it comes to equipment and procurement of weapons, the focus will be on what is actually operationally and militarily needed now.
What is that?
Above all, these are still anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons, but also lightly armored vehicles for troop transport. In addition, modern means of communication. And above all, drones. If you now look at the local combat situation and at the warfare of the Russians and also the Ukrainians, you can see that this is a priority. And for that you need a lot of money. And the EU provides that.
Do you think that this military equipment can then also be procured?
Yes I think so. There are certainly countries and manufacturers that can deliver.
Buying is one thing, delivery is another. Do the supply routes still exist?
Indeed, that’s a valid question. For the Ukraine, in addition to the procurement, the relocation of this device into the country is a challenge and above all the question: How does this device get to eastern Ukraine? Because from the Slovakian or Polish border it is 1000 kilometers to the front. They have to be bridged first. The entire supply logistics and the supply routes of the Ukrainians are under Russian fire.
And air and sea routes …
There is no way to bring weapons and equipment to Ukraine by sea or air. These are paths that are excluded. And so you have to think about all of this when you talk about modern weapons and modern equipment for Ukraine.
How do you rate the previous deliveries from EU countries, including Germany?
I think that the situation in Ukraine would be different without the massive arms deliveries from the West, even before the conflict. Above all, the American military aid, which has had an impact since the annexation of Crimea, has helped the country. Without that, the Russians would certainly have achieved rapid military success.
So without these arms deliveries, Ukraine would have lost this war long ago?
Let’s put it this way: At the beginning of the conflict, one could still think of a quick defeat, when the Russians wanted to quickly occupy Kyiv. But that failed. If the Ukrainians manage to prolong the war, the Ukrainians may end up defeating the Russians. Until then, it is therefore important to prevent a Russian victory and a Ukrainian defeat. The Ukrainians are fighting resolutely, heroically, now especially in eastern Ukraine. Against a Russian army that is advancing very slowly. And that across a width of 500 kilometers with over 100,000 men. But they are actually defending themselves very bravely, and it wouldn’t be possible without the Western equipment.
Let’s take a very specific look at the military situation in Ukraine. How do you currently assess the developments at the front?
If you look at the military situation objectively, then it is far removed from what is sometimes claimed by the Ukrainian and also by the official Ukrainian side – and what is also very often rumored in the media. The Russians already have the say in operational-military terms.
You mean the Russian army is in better shape than many think?
The Russians control the urban centers on the Sea of Azov and they control the Black Sea coast. There is also a naval blockade in progress. They have absolute dominion there. Yes, they had casualties among their fighter planes. But they were very, very moderate compared to the time this war is going on.
But in eastern Ukraine the situation seems very deadlocked?
Well, Ukrainian fighters are actually in danger of being encircled in eastern Ukraine. You are right, it is not yet clear whether this will succeed. The Russians are now operating very slowly, widely and in a more coordinated manner, no longer in deep columns as at the beginning of the conflict. But the bottom line is that they have military dominance and air supremacy in space. And you have to pay more attention to that, even when you think of arms deliveries.
In his video messages, President Zelenskyy is already talking about a strategic defeat for Russia. It is obvious to everyone in the world. You probably wouldn’t call it that, would you?
No, the military situation does not allow for that. The situation is simply very different locally. It could be described as a strategic defeat if the term strategy is used very broadly.
In what way?
Russia is internationally isolated. We have launched an unprecedented package of sanctions. Added to this is the forthcoming NATO membership of Sweden and Finland. This, of course, greatly worsens Russia’s overall strategic situation. Despite this, we cannot speak of a strategic defeat for Russia. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy must motivate his people and his army to keep fighting. Statements like this are helpful. But that doesn’t correspond to the real situation “on the ground”.
Erich Vad is a former general and ex-adviser to former Chancellor Angela Merkel.
(Photo: ntv)
That doesn’t sound so good from a Ukrainian perspective.
But it is so. We are currently running the risk of underestimating Russia. The Russian troops have a clear military dominance on the ground as well as in the air.
Now, coming back to the beginning of the conversation, EU funds are supposed to flow in for more weapons. How do you rate Ukraine’s chances of achieving a military victory with the help of arms supplies?
The Russians are currently determining where to strike next. The Ukrainians’ only chance is to prolong the conflict, inflate the cost to the Russians, and wear them down. In the end, that can lead to victory. Or should we say, not to lose.
not to lose?
Ultimately, the aim should be that we finally come back to a truce. This includes ending this war at some point and not counting on one side winning. This is completely the wrong approach. It’s about helping the Ukrainians and of course we support them massively. But we must not forget that Russia is a nuclear power, with the most nuclear weapons in the world. Ultimately, therefore, a political rather than a military solution must be found.
So we have to support the Ukrainians militarily so that the Russians eventually come to the negotiating table and are ready to seriously negotiate a ceasefire or an end to the war?
That’s how I see it.
Tilman Aretz spoke to Erich Vad