Moldova is a small country that directly borders Ukraine and is located on the Black Sea. Russia has been exerting influence there for decades – and feeding the breakaway region of Transnistria. Brigitta Triebel from the Konrad Adenauer Foundation office there explains in an interview why this is important for the war and what European interests look like.
dr Brigitte Triebel heads the office of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Chisinau, the capital of Moldova.
(Photo: private)
ntv.de: Ms. Triebel, the Republic of Moldova borders directly on Ukraine – what do you notice about the war in the neighboring country when you are there?
Brigitta Triebel: On the one hand, everyday life goes on as normal. There are no increased security risks. But after the war started, many feared that Moldova might also be threatened. This would have been especially the case if the Russian army had taken Odessa. The city is only a two or three hour drive away. There was great concern that the Russians would then invade the breakaway Moldovan province of Transnistria and put pressure on the government in the capital, Chisinau.
However, there was no Russian invasion.
But the hybrid war, for example with fake news campaigns against the EU-friendly government, gained in intensity. In addition, Russia cut off all gas supplies, which was a disaster for the small country of around 2.6 million people.
What strategic importance does Moldova have for the Ukraine war?
On the one hand, Moldova is important to us because the pro-European government is reforming and modernizing the country with all its might in order to bring it into the EU. The country has been an EU accession candidate since last year. The other side concerns the security situation in the region. Moldova is a neighboring country of Ukraine and a former Soviet republic. That’s why it’s part of Russia’s plans to expand its own territory.
What does that mean specifically?
If Russia were to invade there, it could also attack Ukraine from the south-west. But we would also have an unstable country right on the border of Bulgaria and Romania, i.e. two NATO and EU countries. This would further destabilize the Black Sea region. It is important for us that Moldova remains stable, reforms democratically and moves towards Europe.
About 1,500 Russian soldiers are already in the Republic of Moldova, in the breakaway region of Transnistria. What does this mean for Ukraine and the war?
The Russian troops in Transnistria are an acute security risk for Ukraine. Next to the Republic of Moldova itself, Ukraine will be the country that will be most insistent that the Transnistria conflict be resolved as soon as possible, i.e. that Russian troops withdraw from there. Ukraine has already completely closed the border. This does not make the situation for the regime in Transnistria any easier.
Is it conceivable that the Russians will withdraw and Transnistria will become part of Moldova again?
That depends on the outcome of the war in Ukraine. If Russia actually has to withdraw from Ukraine and is weakened, Transnistria could be re-integrated. If Russia were no longer able to exert influence, the conflict will be solvable. Then the ruling elites in Transnistria would have to ask themselves who should support them. There is no functioning economy there. The regime survives only because of the subsidies from Russia and above all because of the soldiers who are stationed there.
Moldova was part of the Soviet Union and Russian troops have been there for around 30 years. How would you describe that?
The interesting thing is that since the breakup of the Soviet Union, Russia has never had a land border with Moldova, so geographically it is relatively far away. From Moscow’s point of view, however, the decisive factor is that the Republic of Moldova was part of the Soviet Union and even before that was partly part of the Tsarist Empire. For them, it’s just a region that belongs.
What does Russia get out of it?
Transnistria has been the lever to prevent Moldova from moving west since the early 1990s. As early as 1990, the Kremlin supported separatists. They were allowed to do their mafia-like business like human and drug trafficking. Transnistria was the region’s black hole. Perhaps 500,000 people still live there today. There was also fighting in the 1990s, but the conflict has now frozen. State structures were set up, with a parliament, a football team and everything that goes with it. However, the regime is completely dependent on Russia.
How can Moldova join the EU if part is controlled by Russia?
That’s been the big question for years. In everyday life, however, the people in Transnistria and Moldova have learned to deal with it. The border is not sealed off, some live in Transnistria and work in Chisinau. The situation changed again after the war. Now Russia is far away even for the Transnistrian rulers. Therefore, the relationship is currently geared towards a constructive status quo. A reunification would be an immense challenge for Chisinau. Two very different societies would meet.
Would EU accession be conceivable without reunification? Then the EU’s external border would have to run through the country.
Here we are again with the leverage that Russia has built up since the 1990s. For decades, Moldova’s separation from Transnistria has prevented Moldova from committing itself more firmly to the West. This is the interesting thing: Russia used the instrument of pseudo-republics shortly after the end of the Soviet Union. Unfortunately, we only understood that in the Donbass. I see a pragmatic approach in the EU. It is definitely formulated in Brussels and Chisinau in such a way that EU accession should not fail because of this.
Is there real sympathy for Russia?
To this day, there are many people across Moldova who say they were better off in the Soviet Union. Many, around 20 to 25 percent, speak Russian as their mother tongue and have close ties to Russia. At the moment, about 60 percent say they want to go to Europe, with all the consequences. The others prefer to orientate themselves to the east or wish for a neutrality between west and east. Eastward orientation is much stronger in Transnistria than in the rest of the country. Society there has developed in a completely different direction than the rest of the Republic of Moldova over the past 30 years, for example due to the Russian-influenced education system. However, Russia exerts a strong influence throughout the country.
By gas? We know that from Germany.
Yes, except that the dependency in Moldova was 100 percent. The energy blockade is a huge problem for people, even if the EU has helped with money. Nevertheless, inflation was well over 30 percent for a long time. Even the middle class is threatened with impoverishment. Then there are still parties funded by Russia, and Russia runs disinformation campaigns. Then the EU-friendly government of Maia Sandu is blamed for the high prices. In polls, her party has fallen from 60 percent to 30 percent. From this we can see that it has not yet been decided which direction Moldova will finally take.
Volker Petersen spoke to Brigitta Triebel