Is Shoigu’s Star Falling?
ISW sees possible intrigues in Moscow
May 3, 2024, 1:37 p.m
Listen to article
This audio version was artificially generated. More info | Send feedback
Does Russian Defense Minister Shoigu’s chair shake? The US think tank ISW at least sees signs that Kremlin boss Putin could trim it down. Kremlin critic Khodorkovsky also believes that Shoigu is no longer “untouchable” – Putin considers the military to be too powerful.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) sees indications that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to curtail the power of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. According to the latest analysis by the US think tank, Putin met a well-known member of the Wagner troupe, Alexei Dyumin. The governor of Tula was once the president’s bodyguard and interim deputy defense minister, and he made a name for himself last summer Russian media reports in the meantime hope to be able to replace Shoigu. However, he then fell into Putin’s favor after the failed uprising by Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Now, according to the analysis, Dyumin informed Putin in particular about Tula’s contribution to the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine. “Dyumin’s briefing appeared to be an attempt to win Putin’s favor,” writes the ISW.
The meeting also suggests, it goes on, “that Putin is probably the responsible decision maker” behind the arrest of Shoigu’s deputy, Timur Ivanov. Ivanov has recently been in prison on corruption charges. “According to reports, Shoigu had a particularly close relationship with Ivanov, and Ivanov’s arrest and Dyumin’s sudden reappearance may indicate that the Kremlin is dissatisfied with Shoigu’s performance,” writes the ISW. Shoigu was repeatedly criticized because of the course of the war, particularly the mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, who died last summer, who criticized him sharply.
Khodorkovsky: Shoigu is no longer “untouchable”
Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who lives in exile, also assumes that Shoigu’s position is shaky. With Ivanov’s arrest, Putin made it clear that the Defense Ministry was no longer “untouchable” and that Shoigu’s position was by no means secure, he wrote on X. “According to insiders, this is a direct threat from Putin to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.”
Khodorkovsky explains why Ivanov was arrested now: “Because Putin believes that the military – and therefore Shoigu too – has become too powerful and he wants to rein them in.” With the death of Wagner boss Prigozhin, Shoigu effectively gained control of all Russian armed forces in Ukraine. “And Putin didn’t like that.”
It’s not just Ivanov who is now being targeted by the security forces. As the ISW and British intelligence reported this week, defense deputy Rustam Zalikov has now also been summoned by the FSB. He is considered the third man behind Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valeri Gerasimov.