Friday 10th December 2021
Is the invasion of Ukraine threatened?
Secret services evaluate Russian muscle games
Russia is said to have positioned up to 100,000 soldiers on the border with Ukraine. Are the countries about to go to war? What are Moscow’s intentions? Secret services see clear goals behind the threatening gestures. The Russian government is also concerned with the mood in its own country.
According to the assessment of Western intelligence services, Russia wants to use the troop movements in the direction of Ukraine above all to force NATO concessions on controversial political and military issues. It looks as if Russia wants legally binding assurances that Ukraine will never become a NATO member, said a senior intelligence representative shortly before a meeting of the G7 foreign ministers in Liverpool. In addition, Russia wants the alliance to refrain from permanently stationing troops and equipment in Ukraine, stop all military support for the country and no longer conduct any exercises in the vicinity of Russia.
“Russia is trying to show that it is threatened and that it is reacting to Western behavior (…),” said the top official. The country only reacts to the problems that it creates itself. “It is the arsonist who is trying to play the role of the firefighter,” he commented.
As a possible reason for the current course of the government in Moscow, the secret service representative named the fear that the developments in Ukraine could arouse unwanted desires in the Russian population. The threat is that Ukraine is a role model and could develop into an even more democratic state with free elections, a diversified economy and adherence to Western principles and values. This could be more dangerous than the power of military apparatus, he said.
Warning against too much optimism
The background to the statements are the findings of NATO, according to which Russia has currently drawn between 75,000 and 100,000 soldiers on the border with Ukraine. The developments bring back memories of 2014. At that time, Russia had annexed the Crimean peninsula after the coup in Ukraine and began supporting separatists in eastern Ukraine, which is still ongoing.
On the question of whether Russia could invade Ukraine if the threatening backdrop does not bring the desired results, the secret service agent said that significantly more troops would probably be needed than those currently on the ground. At the same time, he stressed that Russia had the capabilities to mobilize the additional troops quickly. From his point of view, it is now important to act cautiously and to prepare for the fact that theoretically there could be a large-scale military operation at the end of January or beginning of February. One cannot afford the luxury of starting from the best possible scenario, he warned.
The foreign ministers of the G7 countries Germany, France, Great Britain, Italy, Japan, Canada and the USA will meet in Liverpool from this Friday. It is expected that the talks will, among other things, focus on the question of how deterrence against Russia can be further strengthened. For Germany, the new Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is expected to attend the talks.
Until recently, it was considered very unlikely that the West would make major concessions in the conflict with Russia. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg repeatedly emphasizes that it is not up to Russia to determine who will and who will not become a NATO member.