The answer is yes, according to the recent report from asset manager Fidelity. He believes that in view of the regulatory and governmental recognition acquired by Bitcoin in 2021, the probability is high that new nation states will start, like El Salvador, to buy BTC. Not necessarily out of conviction, but rather so as not to miss the train of a major innovation in the global competition which will designate the economic leaders of tomorrow.
An optimistic hypothesis despite opposing government orientations
It will have escaped no one that Bitcoin in 2021 acquired a new status. Internet money originally reserved for a handful of insiders now shows up on the balance sheets of big corporations and a nation-state.
In its summary of the trends observed in 2021 and their potential future impact, Fidelity expects more states to acquire bitcoin. A hypothesis that may seem surprising insofar as the regulatory landscape of crypto has shown a striking contrast.
On the one hand China, which has multiplied the threats against the ecosystem throughout the year to finally ban transactions in cryptocurrency and all mining on its territory for the umpteenth time. On the other, El Salvador, which has become the first sovereign nation to give bitcoin the status of legal tender alongside the US dollar by multiplying initiatives in favor of its adoption. Deployment of its own digital wallet (the highly questionable Chivo), distribution of satoshis to citizens, repeated purchase of BTC to supply the country’s reserves and the launch of a “bitcoin bond” of one billion dollars intended for half of the purchase of the first crypto, the other 500 million being used the development of the country’s mining capacities (which will make it possible to repay the loan).
Without prejudging which of these diametrically opposed government orientations will prevail, Fidelity remains confident about the future of crypto-assets. Firstly because of their decentralized nature which makes them uncensorable. But also, becauseassuming that a ban does come true, it will in his view lead to “significant loss of wealth and opportunity” for the censor country. In support of his thesis, the “historical” argument according to which “capital flows where it is best treated and that adopting innovation leads to greater prosperity”.
compelling logic
Starting from this principle, the two authors of the synthesis deduce a high-stakes game theory regarding bitcoin adoption.
” If bitcoin adoption increases, countries that secure some bitcoins today will be more competitive than their peers. Therefore, even if other countries do not believe in the investment thesis or the adoption of bitcoin, they will acquire it. obligatorily as a form of insurance. »
And in the balance, they argue the advantage of buying bitcoin today, a moderate price to pay as a hedge, than tomorrow versus a potentially much higher cost. For them, the benefits to a country of integrating bitcoin into its reserves blithely outweigh the risks that many governments still associate with cryptocurrencies.
” So we wouldn’t be surprised to see other sovereign nation states acquiring bitcoin in 2022. Maybe even see-we a central bank make an acquisition. »
Fidelity True to Its Belief
Note that apart from El Salvador, several other states would already hold bitcoin in their reserves but unofficially. Thus, according to the Bitcoin Treasuries site which warns of unreliable data, at present, Ukraine and Georgia would also have them. others, like norway, would be exposed to it via their sovereign wealth funds.
The conviction expressed by Fidelity in a regulatory environment still characterized today by a patent lack of clarity may seem optimistic. But remember that the American mutual fund giant was a pioneer among the big players on Wall Street. In 2018, he launched a cryptocurrency custody and trading service, Fidelity Digital Assets, and has since multiplied initiatives in the crypto industry.
Led by the faith of its leader Abigail Johnson, Fidelity has paved the way for the integration of cryptocurrencies into institutional-scale strategies and has been instrumental in the fact that many of its peers have joined the ecosystem following it. The rise of bitcoin and the like has so far proven him right…