Cédric Chasseur / Photo credit: AHMAD HASABALLAH / GETTY IMAGES EUROPE / GETTY IMAGES VIA AFP
A Hamas delegation is traveling to Egypt this Monday to deliver its response to an Israeli counter-proposal on a truce in Gaza where fighting rages between the Israeli army and the terrorist movement. But Frédéric Encel, doctor in geopolitics, this “humanitarian pause” should not last forever.
Will there be a truce in the fighting in Gaza? While fighting still rages there between the Israeli army and Hamas, a delegation from the terrorist movement is expected in Egypt this Monday. She must deliver her response to the truce counter-proposal formulated by the Jewish state, while the IDF is preparing to launch a ground offensive in Rafah, where there are 1 million displaced Palestinians.
Doctor in geopolitics and professor at Sciences-Po Paris, Frédéric Encel considers the emergence of an agreement “possible”, “but in the sense of a humanitarian pause”, he insists at the microphone of Europe 1. In other words, the researcher does not believe in the possibility of a ceasefire. “I insist on the term pause, truce. Because a definitive ceasefire would be the end of hostilities.”
The hypothesis of a truce of “a few days”
A scenario with which Israel could not be satisfied according to him. “This would mean that Israel would not have won the war, or even would have lost it. And given the balance of power which is obviously overwhelming, militarily, in favor of Israel, this is not possible” .
For Frédéric Encel, if there is a break, it should not last forever. “I think that Israel will not accept a truce of one month, two months or three months. Because, somewhere, that would mean accepting very strong international pressure, particularly from the United States. As a result, the armed arm of the IDF would be in some way stopped”, analyzes the researcher who leans more towards a truce of “a few days”, “in the same way as that which occurred last November”, he concludes.