DSince the end of September, the war in Ukraine has entered a new phase, which carries even higher risks of escalation. Despite a succession of setbacks, the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, has not changed his reading of the conflict: he still thinks he can annihilate the resistance of the Ukrainians and break the determination of Westerners, and first of all Europeans. This is the meaning that must be given to the so-called partial mobilization to which he proceeded, to the annexation of four Ukrainian regions, to the continuation of hydrocarbon blackmail and clandestine actions (sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines), to the renewal of nuclear threats and, finally, to the campaign of more or less indiscriminate strikes in the depths of Ukrainian territory.
This last point is perhaps the most important, at least in the short term. On the one hand, it raises the cost of the Ukrainian resistance considerably – think for example of the disorganization of the distribution of electricity. On the other hand, it is indicative of a desire to remove any inhibition in the use of force. It may seem strange, but in the previous phase the two parties imposed certain limits on themselves, such as the sanctuary of Russian territory and restrictions in Russian strikes on the nerve centers of the Ukrainian system. While, moreover, the Russian army is in the process of losing its footing in Kherson, one can wonder if we have not entered into a spiral which makes a frontal clash between Russia and NATO almost inevitable.
Western states are not at war with Russia. A multifaceted showdown is nonetheless under way between Moscow and the United States and their allies. One point has perhaps not attracted enough attention: in the current situation, a “third force” – admittedly not coherent – is playing an increasingly crucial role, these are the countries that we could call the “uninhibited average powers”. Thus, India and Turkey, by developing their trade with Russia, lighten the weight of Western sanctions, Saudi Arabia does the same by deciding with OPEC+ to reduce oil production quotas. Iran, for its part, delivers to Moscow the drones that fall on Ukrainian cities.
Uncomfortable position
The policies of these powers – some of them being “friends” of the West – contribute to weakening Western strategy and strengthening the resolve of the Kremlin. It is to be feared that Russia will obtain through one of them the microprocessors which its defense industry has a vital need for.
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