Brazilian democracy is not about to forget Sunday, January 8. The events took place in the center of the federal capital, Brasilia, in the early afternoon. Thousands of pro-Bolsonaro demonstrators, contesting the defeat of their leader in the October presidential election against Lula, swept over the Place des Trois-Pouvoirs, where the main institutions of the country are concentrated (Congress, presidential palace and Supreme Court) before invading them. After three hours of ransacking the places and their heritage treasures, they were evacuated by the police and, for more than three hundred of them, arrested.
According to Armelle Enders, professor at the University of Paris-VIII and specialist in the contemporary history of Brazilthis attempted insurrection is the result of a political climate “polarized and violent” maintained by a radical fringe of Jair Bolsonaro’s supporters since his defeat in the presidential election. However, the researcher believes that through this episode “the country’s institutions, although weakened, have demonstrated their resistance”but that “The question that will arise in the coming hours and days is that of the loyalty of the police to the democratic regime”.
How do you interpret the events that took place on Sunday, Place des Trois-Pouvoirs, in Brasilia?
Armelle Enders: It is clear that Brazil experienced a coup attempt on Sunday and that it was not a simple demonstration that would have degenerated spontaneously. But the events are unfortunately not surprising, given the deleterious, polarized and violent state of the political climate in Brazil since the defeat of Jair Bolsonaro in the presidential election against Lula, which he and his supporters have maintained.
Since October 30 [jour du second tour de l’élection présidentielle et de la victoire du leader de la gauche], Brazil’s far-right is calling on the military to intervene in order to prevent Lula from gaining power, with supporters sitting day and night outside barracks and military installations across the country for an answer.
But since they failed to prevent the inauguration of the leader of the Labor Party, which took place on 1er January, supporters of Jair Bolsonaro are now trying to bring in the military, causing chaos. This was precisely the purpose of this concomitant invasion of Congress, the Planalto [palais présidentiel] and of the Supreme Court, as was that of the planned attack against Lula fomented by a supporter of Mr. Bolsonaro, which was foiled a few days before his inauguration.
To what extent has Brazilian democracy, which was reborn almost forty years ago from the rubble of the military dictatorship, been jeopardized by this attempted insurrection?
By attacking the hotbeds of Brazilian democracy and ravaging them from within, Jair Bolsonaro’s supporters have shown how inherently undemocratic their movement is and they have put their threats into practice. If the democratic challenge already existed in Brazil before the Bolsonaro era, it has, in fact, widened in an abyssal way during his presidency, because of his practice of power and the discredit thrown permanently on the counter-powers.
Still, we do not know today what part of his supporters continue to contest the election of Lula after his investiture and even less how many of them support the invasion of institutions that took place. Because of the chaos and brutality aroused, Sunday’s move to violence may, on the contrary, serve to establish the legitimacy of Lula’s government among some more moderate voters of Jair Bolsonaro, when it risks convincing the more extreme.
Be that as it may, faced with this peril that threatened Brazilian democracy, the country’s institutions, although weakened, demonstrated their resistance. They regained control of events on Sunday, after having held out throughout Jair Bolsonaro’s mandate despite their destabilization or even during the campaign and the presidential election, just like the day of Lula’s inauguration.
The chances of a coup d’etat in Brazil are therefore slim, in my opinion, because it would require both massive popular support and military support, two conditions which are not met for the moment. The majority of the Brazilian political class, including in its components most opposed to Lula, does not wish to relive a flight forward from the regime.
At the time of the invasion of the institutions, members of the Federal Police of Brasilia present in the Three Powers Square were filmed taking photos or chatting with demonstrators. What role do the armed forces play in this climate of high tensions and political threats?
So far, the army has not given in to calls from Bolsonarists to overthrow the newly elected president. But she also did not break with the vagueness surrounding her relationship with Mr. Bolsonaro and her possible current support for the former head of state, to whom she was very close, despite damaged ties over the course of her life. mandate. The question that will arise in the coming hours and days is therefore that of the loyalty of the police to the democratic regime.